ESPN’s latest Football Power Index gives the Texas Longhorns a 79.4% chance to defeat Arizona State and advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals.
According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.”
Because the FPI is a mathematical model that takes into account a large number of data points outside of a team’s direct results and record, it doesn’t behave like polls or mirror human-driven rankings. For example, there are four teams in the FPI’s top 12 that did not make the playoff this year: No. 12 Louisville, No. 11 Miami, No. 7 Ole Miss and No. 4 Alabama.
The Georgia Bulldogs are fifth in the FPI rating, behind Alabama; Notre Dame, their Sugar Bowl opponent; Ohio State; and, of course, Texas, who they beat in the regular season and the SEC championship.
ESPN’s FPI
FPI
- Texas Longhorns (26.2 FPI)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (25.8 FPI)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (25.4 FPI)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (24.0 FPI)
- Georgia Bulldogs (22.1 FPI)
- Oregon Ducks (21.3 FPI)
- Ole Miss Rebels (20.7 FPI)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (20.6 FPI)
- Tennessee Volunteers (20.0 FPI)
- Indiana Hoosiers (19.0 FPI)
- Miami Hurricanes (16.9 FPI)
- Louisville Cardinals (16.3 FPI)
Playoff Teams outside of the top 12: SMU (No. 13, 15.0 FPI), Clemson (No. 15, 14.5 FPI), Arizona State (No. 21, 11.9 FPI), Boise State (No. 25, 10.9 FPI)