The 2022 Georgia Bulldogs will enter the season as the defending national champions but will have a very new look after losing a huge number of guys to the NFL draft and the NCAA transfer portal.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly recently released his returning production rankings, which takes a look at which programs return the most production from last year’s teams. This category is one of the three factors that go into his SP+ rankings and account for a majority of the formula.
Georgia checked in at No. 96 in the rankings, returning 59 percent of its production from last season. Connelly breaks it down even more – by offensive and defensive production. Georgia returns 73 percent on offense (43rd nationally) and 44 percent on defense (122nd nationally).
To put this in perspective, Georgia ranked No. 92 in last year’s rankings, yet still managed to win the College Football Playoff. Georgia beat Alabama, which ranked No. 110 going into the 2021 season, showing just how important Kirby Smart and Nick Saban’s recruiting efforts have been over the last few seasons.
For comparison purposes, Tennessee ranks No. 33 with 74 percent production returning. Florida (No. 62), Kentucky (No. 63), Alabama (No. 65), Auburn (No. 62) and Missouri (No. 68) all return 65 percent production from last year’s teams. Georgia’s Week 1 opponent, Oregon, ranks No. 76 with 63 percent. Ohio State ranks No. 24 with 76 percent, putting it as the highest legitimate title contender on the list.
Connelly explained how he got these numbers for the offensive side of the ball:
Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 37% of the overall number
Percent of returning QB passing yards: 29%
Percent of returning OL snaps: 28%
Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 6%
Broken out by position/player, you’re looking at approximately 29% for the quarterback, 9% for each of four wide receivers and/or tight ends and 6% for the running back and each offensive lineman.
And here he explained how he equated the returning defensive production:
Percent of returning tackles: 59%
Percent of returning passes defensed: 28%
Percent of returning tackles for loss: 8%
Percent of returning sacks: 5%
Perhaps surprisingly, turnover in the back of the defense causes far more of a shift in a team’s SP+ rating from year to year than turnover up front. By position, defensive backs make up about 51% of the defensive formula, while linebackers are at 32% and the defensive line is at 17%.
Georgia ranked No. 3 in ESPN’s Mark Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early top 25, however, Connelly considers Georgia one of the teams that is “most likely to regress” in 2022.
I’m not even going to pretend Georgia is in any sort of danger zone this season — recent history and recruiting rankings are going to keep the Dawgs easily in the top three in the SP+ projections. But it’s worth noting that they rank 96th in returning production while last year’s two other top-three teams rank 65th (Alabama) and 24th (Ohio State).
The factors that go into the full SP+ projections, which will be released this week include: How good has the team been recently? How well has it recruited? Who returns from last year’s roster (returning production)?