[jwplayer OSsf8U3L]
ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the proprietor of the SP+ sports analytics system, has released his system’s projected win totals for all FBS teams participating this season. Connelly released the preseason SP+ rankings earlier this month, in which the Gators were ranked fifth.
As opposed to pure projected win totals, Connelly used what he calls “marginal win totals.” This means that teams that are favored by more than 7.5 points are projected to win, teams that are underdogs by more than 7.5 points are projected to lose, and anything in between is a tossup, meaning they are credited for 0.5 wins.
With this in mind, Florida is projected to win 8.5 of its 10 games this year. Other teams projected at 8.5 wins are Cincinnati and divisional rival Georgia, who the Gators haven’t beaten since 2016.
Florida and Georgia are both projected top-five teams per SP+, but 10-game SEC schedules will leave you with quite a bit of work to do. Georgia heads to Alabama, hosts Auburn and faces Florida in Jacksonville; Florida also hosts LSU and travels to Texas A&M. This could be a fascinating CFP race, as there really might not be more than two or three Power Five teams finishing with zero or one losses. We could theoretically see a three-loss No. 4 seed.
As Connelly mentioned, expanded conference schedules likely mean more difficult schedules for most teams, so it’s possible there will be a wider margin for error for teams trying to make the playoff this fall. With the Gators projected to lose only one or two games, they could find themselves squarely in that race come the end of the regular season.
[lawrence-related id=22654,22412,22224,22222,21976,21961]
[vertical-gallery id=20711]
[vertical-gallery id=20730]