Plenty of optimism is surrounding the Buffalo Bills heading into the 2020 season.
The Bills have had a stout defensive unit for several seasons and the front office hopes their offseason additions help the offense close the gap a bit. Putting two and two together, the Bills could be sitting pretty next season. Or at least many hope so.
ESPN released their Football Power Index on Tuesday and the Bills are the AFC East’s favorite according to their formula. However, the Bills just squeak in as the favorite, according to the world-wide leader’s explanation:
Here’s how close the margin is: Buffalo has a 41.0% chance to win the division while the Patriots are all the way down at … 40.9%. This division is a toss-up for the first time since we discovered fire.
The Bills rank one spot behind the Patriots in FPI’s rankings but have a slightly easier schedule. For their non-common opponents, the Patriots play the Ravens and Houston Texans, while the Bills play the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans.
Buffalo is one of four divisional favorites that did not win its division in 2019. The others are the Cowboys in the NFC East (48%), Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South (40%) and Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North (38%).
For reference, ESPN’s FPI formula takes several factors into consideration. Those include team’s over/ under in Las Vegas sportsbooks, last season’s rankings on offense, defense and special teams, returning starters, coaching staff changes and quarterback situations.
Looking at those through a Bills lens, Buffalo is hoping for a much better output on offense next season, as opposed to their output a year ago. The addition of Stefon Diggs along should have a massive influence on that. Plus, the Bills are returning a lot of starters on both offense and defense.
But considering the Patriots’ losses this offseason via Tom Brady and others, their still landing pretty high in ESPN’s rankings, clearly. So close to the Bills that the two teams currently share a 60 percent chance to make the playoffs and their both squads land at an estimation of 8.6 wins via ESPN’s FPI.
Those two regularly scheduled meetings with the Pats could turn out to be huge for the Bills next year.
Fortunately, the Patriots are the lone team in the division given much hope. The Jets land at a projected win total of 6.8 wins and a 24 percent shot at the playoffs while the Dolphins numbers, respectively, are 6.2 and 14 percent. Additionally, in terms of the AFC as a whole, the Bills and Patriots are tied for the third-best FPI ranking in the entire conference. The Chiefs and Ravens are one and two, respectively, while the six teams from three to eight are all in the NFC.
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