ESPN’s NFL draft day predictor has Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold as the most likely pick for the Indianapolis Colts when they are on the clock at 15th overall.
At roughly 14 percent, Arnold has the highest percent chance to be selected by the Colts if he’s available at pick 15. In a close second is Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, followed by versatile offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga from Oregon State.
ESPN also projects that there is about a 70 percent chance that Arnold will be on the board when the Colts are picking, with Mitchell having about a 50 percent chance to still be available.
Here is a snippet from ESPN on how these projections are determined:
“The underlying model is based on prospect grades from Scouts Inc, expert mock drafts, and team needs along with a few other factors. The Predictor considers these factors in proportion to how accurate they have been in the past.”
It’s no surprise that the two most likely picks for the Colts are cornerbacks, given that is the team’s biggest need entering the draft. The Colts’ defense surrendered way too many big plays in 2023 and ranked 23rd in both yards per pass attempt allowed and in pass breakups.
As of now, JuJu Brents, who battled injuries during his rookie season, will be one of the boundary starters, presumably with Dallis Flowers, who is coming off an Achilles injury, and Jaylon Jones battling for the other spot.
What the Colts have going for them in this regard is that with loaded wide receiver and offensive tackle draft classes, along with likely four quarterbacks being taken before they are on the clock, all of those offensive selections are going to push down some of the top defenders closer to where the Colts are picking.
A boundary cornerback, Arnold allowed a completion rate of only 52 percent and held pass-catchers to under 11 yards per catch in 2023. He also showcased his ball skills, coming away with five interceptions and 13 pass breakups.
Arnold was also one of PFF’s highest-graded run defenders at cornerback, along with being a sound tackler.
In a recent mock draft from Bruce Feldman of The Athletic, he provided some intel on the prosepcts from coaches. When it came to Arnold, one coach said “he’s good at everything.” Another would call Arnold a “dawg” and add that he’s a “three position player–corner, nickel, and safety.”
At the NFL Combine, Arnold measured in at just under 6-0 and weighed 189 pounds, posting a Relative Athletic Score (RAS) of 9.25, with a 4.5-second 40-yard dash and an elite broad jump and 3-cone time.
In a deep cornerback draft class, Arnold is PFF’s third-ranked corner, behind Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell, and the 14th-rated prospect overall.