Penn State is preparing to host its biggest home game of the year when the two-time defending Big Ten champion Michigan Wolverines come to town on Saturday. Michigan will come in with a no. 2 ranking in the US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 and is currently ranked no. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings, which will be updated Tuesday evening. The Wolverines have been blowing through every team in their path this season, doing what a heavy favorite has been expected to do against the competition Michigan has faced so far. And the Wolverines open as a solid road favorite this weekend in Happy Valley according to one sportsbook, but the ESPN Football Power Index is actually tipped ever so slightly in favor of Penn State.
As of Monday morning the week of the game, Penn State is being given a 50.7% chance of handing Michigan its first loss of the year. This is a reversal of fortune for Penn State with the ESPN metrics because the Nittany Lions were on the other end of the numbers a week ago. Perhaps all that was needed was a reason to believe in the Penn State offense again? A 51-15 victory at Maryland may have swayed the numbers back in Penn State’s favor.
Here is an updated look at Penn State’s FPI outlook from ESPN for each of its remaining three regular season games as well as some other projections for the Nittany Lions.