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ESPN’s Seth Walder has released Football Power Index (FPI) forecasts for the 2023 NFL season.
If you’re unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it’s a projection and rating model for NFL teams developed back in 2015. It takes a number of different factors into account, such as previous team efficiencies, EPA per play, returning starters and injuries in order to predict offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency for a season. Each of those different factors is accounted for in single-game projections before each team’s season is simulated by ESPN thousands of times. The final simulations provide calculations for win totals, playoff and Super Bowl chances for each NFL team.
After simulations from ESPN, the Kansas City Chiefs rank first by a wide margin with a 6.4 FPI rating. The next closest teams are the Buffalo Bills with a 5.5 FPI rating and the Philadelphia Eagles with a 5.0 FPI rating. The Chiefs are projected to finish the season with a 10.6-6.3 record, basically meaning they could finish with an 11-6 or 12-5 record for the 2023 NFL season.
Kansas City, once again, has a very high chance to make the playoffs. They’re given a 77.3% chance to make the playoffs this season, which is the highest mark of any AFC team and the third-highest mark of all NFL clubs. They have a 55.6% chance to win the AFC West division for the eighth consecutive season. They’re given the third-best odds of any team to make the divisional round and conference title game.
Surprisingly, the Chiefs are given the second-best chance to win the Super Bowl at 13%, while the team they defeated in Super Bowl LVII is given the best chance at 14%.
ESPN also suggests that the Chiefs will play a gauntlet of a schedule, finishing second-most-difficult schedule in 2023 next to only the New England Patriots.
Some other nuggets related to Kansas City from ESPN’s FPI forecast:
- The Lions, who the Chiefs face in Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, rank 11th in ESPN’s FPI ratings.
- The Chargers are the second-highest-rated AFC West team at 7th.
- The Jets are the only team rated in the top 10 that K.C. faces in the first six games of the 2023 NFL season.
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