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At 11-2, the Boston Celtics have the Eastern Conference’s best record and they’ve done so while being ranked in the league’s top-10 of both offensive rating (110.9; 4th in the NBA) and defensive rating (102.6; 6th in the NBA). That they’ve been able to dominate on offense, rather than defense — where the most questions were raised — is unsurprising.
However, they’ve done so with star forward Gordon Hayward — playing his best basketball in years — missing five games and both Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker shooting below 42% from the floor. Their bench hasn’t been of much help offensively either, as they continue to be ranked near the bottom of the league in points per game (26.9; 28th in the NBA).
Making an appearance on ESPN’s Brian’s Windhorst’s “Brian Windhorst & the Hoop Collective” podcast with Windhorst and ESPN’s Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has an interesting thought on what’s been a primary catalyst for Boston’s early offensive success.
According to Pelton, the Celtics would have to look no further than to keep the ball in their possession, as it would lead to them getting more shot opportunities (h/t NESN’s Marcus Kwesi O’Mard):
“The thing that has really driven their offense, much more so than their shot-making, has been their ability to take care of the basketball,” he said. “They’re middle of the pack in 12th in terms of effective field goal percentage on offense but they are no. 1 in turnover percentage. And they are No. 1 by a wide margin. The gap between them and the No. 2 team, which is Orlando, is larger than the gap between Orlando and the 11th team in the league.
So they’re just never turning it over, and that’s a quality we don’t think about that much in associating it with elite offenses. We think more about shot-making. But if you get attempts at the basket, that’s going to help your chances.”
The Celtics have the league’s best turnover rate at 12.2%, with the Denver Nuggets and Orlando Magic right behind them at 13.2%. Currently, the gap between the turnover rate of the Nuggets and Magic and that of the team with the 11th-ranked turnover rate, the Houston Rockets, is 1.2%.
That said, while Boston is no longer in another stratosphere with their ball control, they still lead the league in an important category. One that Pelton rightly assesses as a reason that their middling effective field goal percentage (eFG) — ranked 17th in the NBA at 51.4% — hasn’t prevented them from achieving an 11-2 record to start the season.
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Furthermore, the Celtics ranked 13th in the NBA with 90.3 field goal attempts per game (tied with the Golden State Warriors). Among the top 13 teams, only six average more than 15.0 turnovers per game and out of the seven averaging fewer, five are currently in the top-8 of their conference standings.
There could certainly be a direct correlation between their low turnover rate and their team record.
Each of center Daniel Theis (47.4%), forward Jayson Tatum (46.8%), guard Carsen Edwards (42.9%) and forward Grant Williams (29.7%) have underwhelmed from the floor, with Edwards, Theis and Williams struggling from behind the arc and Tatum unable to find the mark from inside it.
Logic would suggest that talented scorers like Edwards and Tatum will turn it around.
However, while they try to catch their rhythm, Boston is certainly benefiting from their ability to take care of the ball. Tatum is particularly helpful in this regard, with a turnover rate of 8.8% despite a usage rate of 27.3%. Edwards (6.2%) also does well in this category though Williams has a glaring turnover rate of 20.3%, the third-highest of their team.
The team’s best player — in terms of efficiency, scoring, usage rate and turnover rate — may be Jaylen Brown though.
Averaging 19.5 points (along with 7.3 rebounds) on 49.7% shooting from the field and 39.0% shooting from three, Brown’s eFG of 55.0% is ranked second among the team’s starters (behind the injured Gordon Hayward’s sizzling eFG of 61.4%). His turnover rate of 8.7% is also lower than Tatum’s while his usage rate of 24.2% isn’t too far behind the Duke product’s either
Moving forward, the Celtics should expect better efficiency from Tatum and Edwards, especially if Tatum cuts down on the number of tough shots he takes from midrange. Combining improved efficiency, exceptional defense and ball control, Boston could remain atop the Eastern Conference standings for quite some time.
*All stats gathered from NBA Advanced Stats and Basketball Reference