The Jaguars’ coaching staff has something to prove this season, at least in the eyes of ESPN’s Benjamin Solak.
Ranking every NFL coaching staff ahead of the 2024 campaign — “It’s about optimization on any given Sunday, while keeping a long view on development,” and not necessarily wins and losses, he wrote — Solak placed head coach Doug Pederson and his Jacksonville staff at No. 18 on Thursday.
He largely cited the Jaguars’ offensive regression last season compared to the year before, given Pederson’s reputation as a respected play-caller from his Super Bowl-winning days as Philadelphia’s head coach, as his reasoning.
Pederson awarded those duties to Press Taylor, who coached alongside him with the Eagles, last season.
Pederson is one of only three head coaches on this list to have won a Super Bowl in the past 10 years. The other two (Andy Reid, Sean McVay) have staffs that are in my top five. Yet here are the Jaguars, all the way down at No. 18.
Pederson hasn’t done in Jacksonville much of what made him successful during his early years in Philadelphia (2016-20). He was on the crest of the run-pass option wave then, which made offense simpler for his quarterbacks, but now the Jaguars ask Trevor Lawrence to run a fairly traditional West Coast offense without many of the bells and whistles other quarterbacks get to enjoy. They still run RPOs and use play-action and send players in motion, but nothing is weaponized the way elite offenses do it in today’s NFL.
Taylor, who has long been connected to Pederson, has been the subject of offensive frustration. He took over playcalling in 2023 and it looks like he’ll keep it in 2024 even though the offense declined in success rate, points per drive and expected points added per play once he manned the headset. Of note was a huge decline on late downs, where Pederson’s offenses have typically been excellent: In 2022, the Jaguars ranked ninth in third-down conversion rate and 15th in fourth-down conversion rate. In 2023, they were 17th and 26th, respectively.
Jacksonville’s decline in advanced offensive statistics was reflected in the box score, as well.
The Jaguars’ offense fell to a slightly above-average No. 13 in the NFL in yards (339.5) and points (22.2) per game in 2023 after finishing No. 10 in those departments under Pederson the year before (357.4 and 23.8, respectively).
Jacksonville’s rushing production dropped by 27.7 yards per game and from No. 14 in the league to No. 24. The Jaguars’ total yards per play decreased by half a yard (down from No. 8 to No. 15), and its turnover count increased by eight (up to fifth-most from 14th-fewest).
The Jaguars nearly matched their points per game from the 2022 season over last year’s first six games, before quarterback Trevor Lawrence suffered the first of three injuries he played through and four he experienced on the campaign (knee, ankle, concussion and shoulder).
Jacksonville averaged 20 points per game after leading receiver Christian Kirk suffered a season-ending core muscle injury in Week 13, too.
So long as Taylor maintains the play-calling role, the Jaguars are banking on Lawrence and Kirk’s returns to full health and a few tweaks to their personnel to get their offense back on track.
Additions include free-agent signees, center Mitch Morse and wide receiver Gabe Davis, and first-round draft pick, receiver Brian Thomas Jr. Davis and Thomas replace Calvin Ridley, who signed with Tennessee in free agency, and Zay Jones, who was released; Morse takes over for Luke Fortner as Jacksonville’s starting snapper.
Solak shared his belief that Jacksonville’s offense can rebound so long as Pederson is heavily involved in the unit’s strategizing.
Praising Jacksonville’s offseason defensive coordinator swap, when Pederson replaced Mike Caldwell with Ryan Nielsen in February, Solak suggested the head coach can lean into the strengths he displayed with Philadelphia this season.
I still think Pederson is a good manager of players and has a sound offensive system, but he needs to be more hands-on in reviving this offense — and he can be. Nielsen, his new defensive coordinator, was one of the pleasant surprises in last year’s coaching carousel. As a first-year DC for the Falcons, he got substantial overachievement out of a thin roster. I expect big things in Jacksonville, where he has a bit more talent to work with.