The Dallas Cowboys have plenty of question marks in 2020. For one, their quarterback isn’t currently under contract. That’s probably the biggest issue in the entire NFL right now. Assuming that Dak Prescott either signs his franchise tag tender or, hopefully, reaches a long-term agreement to be the QB of the now and the near future, then the focus moves elsewhere.
The Cowboys defense wasn’t that good in 2019, and they lost their best player at the most important position; cornerback Byron Jones took his talents to South Beach. They also lost their sack leader, with Robert Quinn taking his rejuvenated-thanks-to-playing-opposite-DeMarcus-Lawrence 11.5 sacks to Chicago. Dallas didn’t address those holes either, choosing to pack the middle of their defense with tackle-and-safety signings. The combination of a strong remaining core and an infusion of high-hope rookies along with these additions leaves many thinking Dallas will be legitimate contenders in 2020.
That includes ESPN, whose advanced analytics department named the Cowboys the fifth-most likely team to reach the Super Bowl.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is their forecasting model based on “each team’s Las Vegas win total; last season’s performance on offense, defense and special teams; the number of returning starters; coaching staff changes; and starting and backup quarterbacks.”
They ran 20,000 simulations on the season and the Cowboys ended up winning the Super Bowl 5% of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
Dallas fell a ways behind the top-four teams, but ahead of 27 other franchises. Kansas City (21%), Baltimore (17%), New Orleans (13%) and San Francisco (12%) finished ahead of the Cowboys. They give the Cowboys a prediction of 9.3 wins and a 69% change to make the playoffs. Right behind Dallas in the FPI rankings is division rival Philadelphia, showing the Cowboys will have the toughest battle in the league. The Giants ranked No. 26 while Washington came in at No. 31.
Dallas finished 8-8 last season, failed to reach the playoffs and fired longtime coach Jason Garrett, replacing him with former Packers coach Mike McCarthy. So why the love for the Cowboys all of a sudden? Well, FPI actually always loved them.
Despite the mediocre .500 record, the Cowboys finished the 2019 season as FPI’s seventh-ranked team. That was fueled almost exclusively by the team’s offense, which finished third in efficiency, while the defense was merely average. The Cowboys didn’t win enough, but they were good enough.
As mentioned, offense is more consistent year to year. So with many of the key ingredients back — including quarterback Dak Prescott, wide receiver Amari Cooper and offensive linemen Tyron Smith, La’el Collins and Zack Martin — there’s every reason to be bullish on the Dallas offense. And it’s a big reason to be bullish on the Cowboys overall. McCarthy might bring a pass-heavier approach, and while it is not represented in the model, it supports the notion even more. Dallas has a 5% chance to win the Super Bowl and a 48% chance to win the NFC East. In fact, its divisional chances might be even higher if the Philadelphia Eagles weren’t directly behind Dallas in FPI’s rankings at No. 6 overall (Philadelphia has a 44.7% chance to take the NFC East).
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