[jwplayer IlqQzvpv]
Success in the NFL is predicated on good coaching decisions and timely execution on both sides of the ball. Doug Pederson is one of the top coaches in the NFL because of his penchant for disregarding the numbers and going with is intuition.
Pederson has enjoyed going for it on fourth down and his confidence has played a major part in the Eagles late-season playoff runs over the past two seasons.
Pro Football Focus recently broke down the biggest winners and losers in the NFL on fourth down to go.
Using a formula that looked at all fourth-down plays in the first three quarters during the 2019 season that met the following criteria: 1) there were four or fewer yards to go for a first down or a touchdown, and 2) the expected points when going for it were higher than when kicking a field goal (with 35 or fewer yards to go to the end zone) or punting (36 or more yards).
Not surprisingly, the Eagles were among the best if not the best.
TEAMS THAT TOOK ADVANTAGE OF FOURTH DOWNS IN 2019:
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were a regular winner of our decision of the week award last year, and for good reason. They made the correct decision on 72% of fourth downs a season ago when going for it was the better of the two choices, generating 10 additional expected points as a result.Things didn’t always work as expected for the Eagles on this money down, though, as Carson Wentz was the victim of three dropped passes — the most of any player on fourth down — and he converted only three of his seven rushing attempts when asked to carry the ball for a first down or touchdown in 2019. Those things are more likely to improve than not in 2020.
The Eagles’ 2017 run during both the regular season and the playoffs will forever change the league, and while the results on the field haven’t been replicated since, they continue to hack basic strategy by playing more downs than other talented teams.
A big part of that success stems from Carson Wentz’s ability to make things happen with his feet or locate either Zach Ertz or Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery was No. 10 in the NFL last year in the overall target rate at 24.1% despite only playing 10 games.
In addition to being among the highest-graded players in the red zone, Jeffery is also No. 2 in the NFL in third- and fourth-down target rates as well.
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