Duke at North Carolina odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Duke at North Carolina odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

On Saturday, the No. 6 Duke Blue Devils (18-3, 8-2 ACC) travel the Dean Smith Center to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (16-6, 8-3 ACC). Tip-off is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Duke vs. North Carolina odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

In Coach K’s last visit to Chapel Hill, his Blue Devils will be heavily favored. They’re coming off a 14-point win and cover on the road over Notre Dame.

Duke has covered 5 of its last 7. The Blue Devils are an ACC-best 12-7-1 against the spread (ATS). As for North Carolina, it’s 10-12 ATS this season. North Carolina covered its only game as home underdogs.

The Tar Heels have covered 6 of their last 10 and 3 of their last 4. They’re led by big man C Armando Bacot, who averages 16.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Duke at North Carolina odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Duke -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | North Carolina +133 (bet $100 to win $133)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Duke -2.5 (-122) | North Carolina +2.5 (-102)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 150.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Duke at North Carolina odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Duke 78, North Carolina 76

Money line

PASS on the money line.

I prefer the North Carolina spread here, and considering 2 of the last 5 matchups between these two teams were won by fewer than two points, I’ll take the points.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to NORTH CAROLINA +2.5 (-102).

The Tar Heels are undefeated at home this season. While most teams get hurt by Duke’s size, Bacot will limit the 7-foot C Mark Williams. Williams averages 2.6 offensive boards per game.

That said, the Blue Devils are 3-2 on the road this season, and to add to that, the Tar Heels have either won or covered a 2.5-point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two sides.

North Carolina is also better than Duke at covering conference games (7-4 vs. 6-4 respectively).

Over/Under

BET on the OVER 150.5 (-112).

Both teams heavily crash the glass. Each is a top-50 offensive rebounding side. That said, Duke is averaging 80.4 points per game this season. North Carolina is at 78.5.

Given that 6 of the last 7 matchups between these two rivals have gone over this projected total, I’ll take the points in this battle of two high-profile programs.

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