Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren have long been the two assumed favorites to go No. 1 overall to the Orlando Magic in Thursday’s draft. That’s no longer the case, however, as presumed No. 3 pick Paolo Banchero’s odds to become the first pick have shortened dramatically in recent days.
A distant third to Smith and Holmgren going into the weekend, Banchero’s odds have shifted from +2000 to +210 on Tipico Sportsbook, now the second-shortest behind Smith at -150. Holmgren went from +125 to +220, an apparent signal that the undecided Magic could be wavering on the Gonzaga big man.
The reason for that isn’t likely to be a lack of interest on the team’s part, considering Holmgren’s high ceiling and fit in Orlando (check out Bryan Kalbrosky’s final mock draft for more on that). Rather, one explanation could be reports of Holmgren’s preference to play for the Thunder. His odds to go second overall to OKC remain the shortest at -150.
I’m inclined to believe that’s the most likely outcome for him — given Banchero’s leap — with Smith going first overall and Banchero going No. 3 to the Rockets. It’s a slight change in stance, as I once thought Holmgren’s odds to go No. 1 provided the most value.
If you believe the sharp action means anything, betting on Banchero to go No. 1 is beginning to feel more valuable — though I’m not moved by it enough to take action. Despite how much I like Banchero as a prospect and as a worthy top pick, I put more value in the Smith-Holmgren talks that have dominated the conversation for a lot longer.
That would mean the widely mocked order of Smith-Holmgren-Banchero is exactly how things will play out.