No NFL team can go wrong with any of the top five quarterbacks available in Thursday’s NFL Draft.
The Chicago Bears are practically guaranteed to select Caleb Williams first overall out of USC (Southern California), leaving the remaining 31 NFL teams to fight over Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr.
Maye turned heads at UNC, combining for nearly 10,000 scrimmage yards and 80 touchdowns in his three seasons (two starting). Daniels won the Heisman Trophy for LSU last season, McCarthy led Michigan to its first National Championship since 1997, while Penix’s strong arm led Washington to an appearance in last year’s title game.
Any of the four quarterbacks listed in the above graph could go second overall, but ESPN’s NFL Draft Day Predictor narrows in on three of them:
“Jayden Daniels, though there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty,” ESPN Analytics’ Seth Walder wrote. “The model gives the LSU quarterback a 49% chance to be the selection at No. 2, with North Carolina’s Drake Maye at 21% and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy at 15%, respectively. The remaining possibilities consist of Williams and Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. — probabilities that are almost certainly inflated. Any model like this requires uncertainty, though there is little actual doubt that Williams will go No. 1 and the Commanders will take a QB at No. 2. The model believes Daniels has the edge — and he is probably an odds-on favorite if we mentally redistribute the Williams and Harrison probabilities — but it’s no slam dunk.”
I agree with these probabilities, as Daniels is the most talented amongst the three. He also played in the SEC, which has proven to sport tougher competition than the ACC or Big 10 in recent seasons.
Not too long ago, however, Maye was viewed as the favorite for second overall.
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