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As more and more numbers are dissected and players analyzed, LaMelo Ball may be separating himself from the rest of the pack in the 2020 NBA Draft. DraftExpress’ duo of Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz recently discussed the case for the No. 1 pick and why Ball could be seen as the runaway option.
Of the three players Mike mentioned as possible No. 1 overall picks, Ball is the clear standout in my statistical projections for NBA prospects — albeit with a caveat. The sample size for Ball (12 regular-season NBL games) is tiny. Still, at age 18, Ball performed as one of the best players in a league that has historically rated slightly better than high-level Division I competition.
Ball’s strong rates of defensive rebounds, assists and steals mark him as a promising prospect, though he still must improve his efficiency as a scorer after making just 25% of his frequent 3-point attempts in the NBL.
The statistical projections Givony is referencing were published in late June and had Ball with a projected WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) of 4.8, well above Tyrese Haliburton in second.
All of the statistical projections come with the asterisk of Ball only played 12 games, but at the same time, little, if anything, he did in the NBL wouldn’t be replicable at another level. Those caveats would matter more if Ball shot exceedingly well in those 12 games or had an unsustainably high rate in some aspect of his game.
Quite the opposite is the case, though. His shot was likely on the low end of what could be expected of him in the NBA and his assist numbers don’t factor in the missed shots from teammates either, and there were plenty on the season.
Projections won’t be the lone thing to determine the order of October’s draft but they are a big feather in Ball’s cap.