‘Doomsday’ SEC tiebreaker scenario Texas Longhorns fans should root for

The SEC tiebreakers are confusing and convoluted. One ‘Doomsday’ outcome is great for Texas and one is a disaster for the Longhorns.

As we get down to the culmination of the Texas Longhorns first season in the SEC, college football analysts and pundits are digesting the crazy scenarios the conference tiebreakers could produce.

There’s one tiebreaker scenario, that only requires one upset and wins by the other favorites over the next three weeks, that would see Texas face LSU in the SEC Championship Game. But there are others that would see Texas finish an astounding eighth in the conference with one more UT loss.

Texas must win all three of its remaining games to guarantee a spot in the SEC title game and a shot at a first round bye in the college football playoffs. One Texas slip up brings a lot of uncertainty to even making the playoff, much less the SEC title game.

SEC tiebreaker rules:

  1. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
  2. Record vs. common conference opponents
  3. Record against the high-place opponent among the tied teams
  4. Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents

The first tiebreaker is easy to understand. The second and third require common opponents, which is difficult in a conference so big. Essentially, the fourth tiebreaker is ‘strength of schedule.’ If there are multiple teams tied, advancement to the SEC title game will probably comedown to tiebreaker No. 4. Texas would loose most ‘strength of schedule’ comparisons.

The SEC doesn’t want any of these ‘crazy’ or ‘doomsday’ scenarios to actually occur. It’s a good bet, no matter what happens over the next three weeks, the conference either makes changes to the tiebreakers or the schedule. Even a ninth conference game would bring more common opponents into play.

Best outcome for the Texas Longhorns:

The tiebreaker scenario that is best for UT would see Texas play LSU in the SEC Championship. The path to this matchup is for all favorites to win out, except for one game — Arkansas would need to upset Missouri. In other words, if the Hogs beat Mizzou and there are no more upsets from here on out.

November 16:
Texas beats Arkansas
LSU beats Florida
Georgia beats Tennessee
South Carolina beats Missouri

November 23:
Texas beats Kentucky
Texas A&M beats Auburn
Ole Miss beats Florida
LSU beats Vanderbilt
Missouri beats Mississippi State
Alabama beats Oklahoma

November 29-30:
Texas beats Texas A&M
Ole Miss beats Mississippi State
Alabama beats Auburn
Arkansas beats Missouri
Tennessee beats Vanderbilt

Worst outcome for the Texas Longhorns:

The worst scenario for UT comes into play if Texas loses to Arkansas in Fayetteville this weekend.

November 16:
Arkansas beats Texas
Georgia beats Tennessee
LSU beats Florida
South Carolina beats Missouri

November 23:
Texas beats Kentucky
Texas A&M beats Auburn
Ole Miss beats Florida
LSU beats Vanderbilt
Missouri beats Mississippi State
Alabama beats Oklahoma

November 29-30:
Texas beats Texas A&M
Ole Miss beats Mississippi State
Alabama beats Auburn
Missouri beats Arkansas
Tennessee beats Vanderbilt

If this happens, LSU would again get to the SEC title game to face Alabama. There is a similar outcome that sees Texas beat Arkansas, A&M loose to Auburn but beat UT. That would also produce LSU-‘Bama.

Cleanest outcome for the SEC:

The easiest and cleanest outcome is simply for Texas and Tennessee to win out. Then the two ‘UT’s’ would play each other in the title game and the tiebreaker chaos doesn’t come into play.

November 16:
Texas beats Arkansas
Tennessee beats Georgia

November 23:
Texas beats Kentucky

November 29-30:
Texas beats Texas A&M
Tennessee beats Vanderbilt

The biggest problem with this scenario is the Vols are a 10-point underdog to Georgia this weekend and they might be without starting QB Nico Iamaleava.

Texas needs to keep winning, otherwise the Horns will have to play spin the ‘SEC tiebreaker Wheel of Fortune’ and might miss everything.