Don’t sleep on Dolphins’ ability to win comfortably in 2020

Don’t sleep on Dolphins’ ability to win comfortably in 2020

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The Miami Dolphins aren’t a team that most people would associate with comfortably winning football games. And yet these days, when the Dolphins do win, it typically comes in the form of a multi-score game — not the kind of victory that leaves much in the way of late game drama. Consider that seismic shift in this organization to be just another set of Brian Flores’ fingerprints on the team. And because Miami has has so little success in handily beating football teams, it seems as though no one is noticing that it is happening now.

Between the start of the 2015 season and the end of the 2019 season, the Miami Dolphins enjoyed five wins of 9+ points (a two-score margin). Those games were as follows:

  • 2015 – Week 6, 38-10 over Tennessee Titans
  • 2015 – Week 7, 44-26 over Houston Texans
  • 2015 – Week 17, 20-10 over New England Patriots
  • 2016 – Week 6, 30-15 over Pittsburgh Steelers
  • 2016 – Week 15, 34-13 over New York Jets
  • 2017 – Week 13, 35-9 over Denver Broncos

That’s it. Miami’s last win by more than one score entering the 2020 season was 37 games ago. And over that time span from 2015-2019, the Dolphins posted a 34-46 record; meaning just 17.6% of Miami’s wins came in a multi-score fashion.

For some historical context, from 2006-2019, 50.2% of all NFL contests were decided by more than one score; so your average NFL team can flip a coin to determine how likely they are to experience a two-score win. The Dolphins, had they been up to par with the league averages, would have found 10+ more wins by double digits over that timespan.

But this isn’t your “same old Dolphins”. Not by a long shot. In 2020, the Miami Dolphins currently sport a 9-5 record and have managed to surpass five years worth of multi-score wins in 14 games.

  • Week 3, 31-13 over Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Week 5, 43-17 over San Francisco 49ers
  • Week 6, 24-0 over New York Jets
  • Week 8, 28-17 over Los Angeles Rams
  • Week 12, 20-3 over New York Jets
  • Week 13, 19-7 over Cincinnati Bengals
  • Week 15, 22-12 over New England Patriots

The Dolphins were a garbage time touchdown by the Los Angeles Chargers from having their 29-21 victory in Week 10 also serving as a notch in their belt. But think about that — this Dolphins team has collected more wins by more than one score in the last fourteen games (7) than the franchise could collect in their previous 80 games (6) — and technically their previous 87 games if you dip into the 2014 season and also include Miami’s 2016 playoff loss to Pittsburgh.

To further put seven multi-score wins into perspective, the 13-1 Kansas City Chiefs have six such victories this season. The 11-3 Green Bay Packers have seven, just as the Dolphins do. The 11-3 AFC East winning Buffalo Bills also have six.

No, this Dolphins team isn’t perfect. There’s plenty of improvement to be found in all phases of the team. And in many cases, help will only come this offseason when Miami can add more talent to the roster. But this team’s successes should not simply be glossed over or ignored in this regard — the Dolphins are handily beating the lesser teams on their schedule this season with some level of consistency.

Miami’s offense may feel clunky at times. The defense may bend a little too much at times. But this team is playing winning football in 2020 and that’s the most important hurdle this team has been able to clear yet in their long-term rebuild.