The Miami Dolphins’ quarterback decision after a Week 6 defeat of the New York Jets certainly made some waves and caused some debate. A modest starting debut for rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa didn’t help the speculation that the Dolphins had made a mistake. But now? After two games? One thing that we can clearly see is some of the differences between Tagovailoa as a passer and Ryan Fitzpatrick — even if the pre-snap process isn’t as crisp or consistent.
Tagovailoa’s accuracy thus far through two games has been terrific. Miami had a handful of timing miscommunications against the Los Angeles Rams, but no blatant overthrows or passes left too far inside that invited defenders to get their hands on the ball. And in the most difficult area of the field, the red zone, the Dolphins are five for five with Tagovailoa at the helm.
Between the Rams and Cardinals games, the Miami Dolphins have scored a touchdown in each of their five trips to the red zone. Contrast that to the 57% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone that Miami produced in six games with Fitzpatrick and it is clear that Miami has the potential to unlock new levels of proficiency as a team.
But how has Tagovailoa been able to keep Miami proficient in the red zone? The Dolphins were helped by Kyle Van Noy and the defense against the Rams; as a fumble recovery returned the ball to the 1-yard line for a rushing touchdown. But ball placement and tight window throws is where Tagovailoa can most help this offense in the red zone. Take his final touchdown against Arizona as an example.
Next Gen Stats marked that throw with a a completion probability of 16.4%; the most improbable completion by a Dolphins QB over the last three years. The tightest of tight windows. And a former NFL quarterback, J.T. O’Sullivan, has recently discussed the red zone and why ball placement in tight windows is so important.
Back turned and only covering the width of the shoulders. Put it high to the head or neck area. Contrasting this with some of the throws Fitzpatrick has put in contested fade situations and this is an area Miami can really benefit from improved play with Tua on the field. pic.twitter.com/diIdaITEeY
— Kyle Crabbs (@GrindingTheTape) November 9, 2020
How many Fitzpatrick targets do you recall versus New England, Jacksonville, San Francisco and New York that were attempted high and tight to TE Mike Gesicki but were left several yards off the mark? With so much at stake and so little margin for error, confidence in tight windows and accuracy to execute is essential. It will be fascinating to watch the development of Tagovailoa and how well he can keep his performances even-keeled. If he performs to the level he did against Arizona, especially in the red zone, the Dolphins’ scoring proficiency appears well aligned to shoot through the roof.
And if that happens, you certainly won’t hear any more of the speculation that the Dolphins made a hasty decision at quarterback.