Top-ranked daily fantasy sports pro Jason Mezrahi, founder and CEO of WinDailySports.com, breaks down his favorite DFS plays at various salary ranges for Week 4 of the NFL season.
Even though we have had great results in picking top DFS plays in this article every week, I’m going to let you in on a little secret: Our projection model at WinDailySports.com has been firing on all cylinders for the first three weeks so what I will do in this article is list some of our highest projected players based off raw points and our highest point per dollar plays based on DraftKings.com pricing.
These are some of the players Jason will be locking in his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel for this weekend’s slate.
QUARTERBACKS
RUSSELL WILSON, SEA
$7,800 DRAFTKINGS, $9,000 FANDUEL
Call it what you want, but I can’t fade Russell Wilson at this point in the season. He won me another $5,000 in Week 3 and I’m going back to the well in Week 4. Check the game logs and that’s all you need to know as to why I will be hitting the lock button on Wilson in Week 4. He has thrown for 5 touchdowns in each of his past 2 games (could’ve been 6 if Metcalf walked into the endzone with the ball still in his hands) and has averaged 36.3 DraftKings points on the season.
On paper, this might be his best matchup of the year versus the Miami Dolphin defense. They are towards the bottom of the league in passing and total yards allowed per game. Wilson has the safest floor of the entire slate and the highest ceiling. Lock him in your cash lineups and go over the field in tournaments.
RYAN FITZPATRICK, MIA
$5,400 DRAFTKINGS, $7,100 FANDUEL
It was a close call here to either target Ryan Fitzpatrick or Cam Newton as my value starter in Week 4, but I give a slight lean to Fitzpatrick due to the discount and better overall matchup. Even though I like Cam’s running upside and will be using him in tournaments, I like the matchup better for Ryan.
The Seahawks have been in shootouts every week regardless of matchups and I believe that will continue in Week 4. Fitzpatrick has looked great outside of his Week 1 matchup versus a stingy Patriots defense. He bounced back with 27- and 25-point performance in the last 2 weeks and I believe the floor in this matchup is 20 with a ceiling of 30. If you need some salary relief, buy some shares of Fitzmagic in Week 4.
RUNNING BACKS
ALVIN KAMARA, NO
$8,000 DRAFTKINGS, $8,800 FANDUEL
Alvin Kamara is back to his old self after having a down year by his standards last year. He has dropped 23, 38, and 47 DraftKings points to start the season and now draws a matchup versus the 3rd worst run defense in the league.
The Detroit Lions have allowed 172 rushing yards per game and Kamara will gash them all day Sunday. He has been productive on the ground and through the air. I’m hitting the lock button on DraftKings in cash games and will have a nice share of ownership on him for tournaments. This will be the last week you can get Kamara at $8,000 so enjoy the discount!
KENYAN DRAKE, ARI
$6,000 DRAFTKINGS, $7,000 FANDUEL
I believe the field was one week too early on Drake. He was highly owned in what looked to be a good matchup in Week 3 and disappointed a ton of people at over 30% ownership in tournaments and even higher % in cash games. Typically after weeks like that, you will see ownership drop off dramatically and that’s the best time to hop on board.
We saw it last week with guys like Derrick Henry and it will be a repeat performance this week for Drake.
His price went down on both sites, his ownership will drop by half on both sites. Meanwhile, he is still good at football and the matchup got better than last week. Carolina is the 2nd worst at defending running backs and I can easily argue that they are the worst overall. If game script goes as planned and Kyler Murray doesn’t vulture touchdowns away I see a huge game coming here for Drake.
WIDE RECEIVERS
TYLER LOCKETT, SEA
$7,000 DRAFTKINGS, $7,500 FANDUEL
The saying goes “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”. I had almost 100% shares of Lockett in Week 3 and I owe him a night out for drinks after his monster three-touchdown performance.
The combination of Wilson to Lockett brought me to the promise land and I’m riding that same boat into Week 4.
As I stated above, the matchup is ideal versus Miami and the underlying numbers look great. Locket has hauled in 8, 7 and 9 receptions to start the season and I can see a double digit reception game out of him this Sunday. If you look at contests across the industry this weekend, you will see a bunch of Win Daily logos with Wilson/Lockett stacks in both cash games and tournaments.
JULIAN EDELMAN, NE
$5,700 DRAFTKINGS, $6,400 FANDUEL
Julian Edelman wasn’t needed much in Week 3 versus the Las Vegas Raiders, but the Patriots will need a massive game to out of him to stay within distance of the Kansas City Chiefs.
You want exposure to this game from the Patriot side because they should be playing catchup and Edelman will be the biggest beneficiary on this offense.
He is underpriced on both sites due to a down week and he provides great value because of it. The floor is safe here with Edelman and lets not forget about his 8-reception, 179-yard game in Week 2 versus Seattle. I can’t predict the same output, but I will have some shares of Edelman across both sites in Week 4.
TIGHT ENDS
MIKE GESICKI, MIA
$5,100 DRAFTKINGS, $5,700 FANDUEL
I typically look for discounts and red zone targets from my tight ends and I believe you get a little bit of both with Gesicki.
The Dolphins should be playing catchup throughout this game and I like a full game stack in tournaments where I run Wilson and Lockett with Gesicki.
The Seahawks have defended the tight end better this year than in years past, but still have allowed an average of 430 yards passing over the first 3 weeks. Not many tight ends provide the upside that Gesicki does, so get some shares of him in Week 4.
EVAN ENGRAM, NYG
$4,400 DRAFTKINGS, $5,600 FANDUEL
Evan Engram hasn’t had his breakout game yet in 2020 and it’s been a long time since he has shown his true talent. Injuries and inconsistencies have been his issue, so there is risk here with this play but we need upside and value at tight end and Engram has the talent to break a slate.
The Rams defense are 23rd in the league against tight ends and have allowed 253 passing yards per game, which will present opportunities for Engram. The Giants are building for the future and if Engram wants to be in that future he better start producing.
The motivation and matchup are there so don’t be surprised when he puts up 15+ points in Week 4.
DEFENSES
BALTIMORE RAVENS
$4,000 DRAFTKINGS, $5,000 FANDUEL
Lets keep this simple. The Ravens are coming off a bad loss to the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs and will be hungry to get back into the win column. Pair that with a matchup with Haskins and the Washington Football Team and they come in as one of the easier decisions to lock in on defense in Week 4. Whenever you have the salary lock in the Ravens do so in both cash and tournament lineups.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
$3,900 DRAFTKINGS, $4,800 FANDUEL
I like the Ravens slightly ahead of the Rams, but they are a close second. The Giants can’t protect Daniel Jones and Jones can’t protect the football. It’s been a turnover festival in NY and I don’t see this team getting better anytime soon.
The Rams have 7 sacks on the season and have caused 5 turnovers as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 5 sacks and 2 turnovers in Week 4 versus an offense Vegas has projected to score only 17 points. The Giants total is the second lowest on the board, with the Washington Football Team projected to score 16.
Jason Mezrahi has been a professional, top-ranked Daily Fantasy Player on FanDuel and DraftKings for more than eight years. He has won FanDuel’s $155,555 King of the Diamond competition and placed second in DraftKings’ Fantasy Basketball World Championship, earning him $300,000. He owns and operates WinDailySports.com, which supports the DFS and Sports Betting community with resources such as tools, projection models, expert chat, in-depth written analysis and podcasts, plus much more.
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