The Detroit Tigers (70-76) and Tampa Bay Rays (90-56) open a four-game set Thursday at Tropicana Field. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Tigers vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Tigers LHP Tyler Alexander (2-2, 4.09 ERA) makes his 12th start and 38th appearance. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 83 2/3 IP.
- Is 1-1 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 7.4 K/9 through 44 IP across 11 starts.
- Allowed 1 earned run on 5 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts over 4 1/3 innings in a start against Tampa Bay Friday.
Rays RHP Louis Head (1-0, 2.67 ERA) makes his second start and 24th appearance. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 30 1/3 IP.
- Allowed 2 earned runs on 3 hits with 3 strikeouts over 1 inning in his Aug. 18 start against the Baltimore Orioles.
- Has not pitched more than 2 innings in any appearance this season and will likely serve as an opener for a bullpen day.
Tigers at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Rays -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-117) | Rays -1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Prediction
Rays 5, Tigers 4
Money line (ML)
Detroit heads into Thursday’s action off of a two-game interleague sweep of the visiting Milwaukee Brewers. The Tigers won four of their last five games – including two of three over the Rays in Detroit last weekend.
Tampa Bay returns home after a nine-game road trip that resulted in a 4-5 record.
A return to Tropicana Field is likely exactly what the road-weary Rays need. They boast the American League’s second-best home record, along with the league’s largest average margin of victory when at home.
The odds are too steep, however, to take Tampa Bay at more than two times your potential return. PASS on the money line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Detroit will have ample opportunity to keep Thursday’s game close as it faces a slew of Tampa Bay relievers.
While the Rays have graded out as a top bullpen over the season, they’ve been quite average of late. The Rays are 13th in xFIP and K-BB% and 14th in SIERA over the last two weeks.
LHP Dietrich Enns is anticipated to eat the bulk of the innings for Tampa Bay but has yet to pitch more than 4 innings in any of his six appearances this season.
The Tigers actually took advantage of this relief corps to the tune of 16 runs over three games just last week. I am not anticipating a repeat of that necessarily, particularly with Enns eating the bulk of the innings, but the chances should be there for Detroit to hang around.
A slight “lean” to DETROIT +1.5 (-117).
Over/Under (O/U)
The Rays will be looking to get back on track after a rough ending to their road trip and they get to see Alexander for the second time in a week. Detroit’s bullpen grades out worse than Tampa Bay’s in recent weeks and would be a welcome sight for the Rays.
The Tigers should get another go-round with a relief corps they beat up just last week, despite Enns anticipated to pitch the bulk of the game.
It may not be a high-flying affair but there should be enough offense to push this OVER 8.5 (-108).
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