The Detroit Tigers (21-33) hit the road to face the Pittsburgh Pirates (24-28) Tuesday in the first game of a 2-game set at PNC Park. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: The series is tied 1-1 after a doubleheader at Comerica Park May 4.
The Tigers have been consistently average, which isn’t a bad thing for a team not predicted to do much this year. They have won 5 of their last 10 games and 10 of their last 20. They are glaringly bad on the road, though, at 6-18.
The Pirates have opened some eyes as they inch closer to .500 in the standings. The Bucs have won 7 of their last 10 games and 11 of their last 20. Derek Shelton may be in the running for Manager of the Year at the season’s end if they can continue this pace.
Tigers at Pirates projected starters
LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Jose Quintana
Skubal (4-2, 2.15 ERA) makes his 11th start in what could be a breakout season. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 58 2/3 IP.
- Relies on a fastball (94 mph average), slider, sinker, changeup and curveball. He has used his slider more this season, which slightly eclipses his fastball usage at 29.8%.
- Has allowed just 3 earned runs across 32 innings spanning his last 5 starts.
- The biggest difference for him this season is he has cut his BB/9 in half. His BABIP is an OK .288, so we’re not playing with fool’s gold here.
- Pirates hitters have hit just .250 with a 35.7% K-rate and a ridiculous .217 xwOBA in 14 plate appearances against Skubal in a small sample size. xwOBA takes into account exit velocity, a hitter’s sprint speed and launch angle into consideration.
Quintana (1-2, 2.32 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3,2 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 50 1/3 IP.
- Has lost a bit on his fastball, which averages 91 mph this season. The lost time due to COVID-19 in 2020 really hurt him as his BB/9 went into the tank over 5.0 last season. It has come back down to a respectable level this year, and he has a good chase rate and a very good average exit velocity.
- Is tough at home with a 1-2 record, 2.03 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, as opposed to 0-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road.
- Current Tigers hitters are hitting .281 in 105 plate appearances against him lifetime with a good .345 xwOBA.
Tigers at Pirates odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Tigers -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Pirates +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+140) | Pirates +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Tigers at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 3, Pirates 2
Money line
This one could be close through the first half of the game, but Detroit’s bullpen is what sets them apart. They are 2nd in baseball with a 2.86 bullpen ERA and 1.11 WHIP. With how dominant Skubal has been on the hill, you could opt to go TIGERS -0.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS (+115) at plus-money.
That’s a little risky, but the Tigers have had success against Quintana and lefties in general. Detroit is hitting 35 points higher against lefties than righties this season. I don’t like to go too deep on a money line for a sub-.500 team, but LEAN TIGERS (-130).
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Run line/Against the spread
The Tigers are 13-12 on the run line away from home this year. Three of their last 5 wins have been by more than a run. Their win against the Pirates May 4 was a 1-run victory. I don’t see enough there to entice me. Pittsburgh’s run line at +1.5 (-175) is also too expensive. PASS.
Over/Under
The forecast is 70 degrees with potential rain in the forecast. We’re dealing with two hot starters and the 30th and 28th-ranked offenses, respectively. Take the UNDER 6.5 (+105).
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