The Minnesota Twins (71-87) play host to the Detroit Tigers (75-83) Thursday at Target Field in the finale of their three-game series and regular-season series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Tigers vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Minnesota won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 8-4.
Season series: Twins lead 11-7.
LHP Tarik Skubal is on the rubber for the Twins. He is 8-12 with a 4.13 ERA (146 IP, 67 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 28 starts and two relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 1 K in Detroit’s 5-1 win over the Kansas City Royals Saturday.
- Skubal is 0-2 with a 4.09 ERA (11 IP, 5 ER), 10 H, 3 BB and 13 K against the Twins in 2021.
- vs. Twins on the current roster (69 PA): 5.73 FIP with a .206 batting average (BA), .307 wOBA, .507 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 30.4 K% and 91.5 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Joe Ryan makes his fifth start for the Twins. He is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA (22 IP, 6 ER), 0.59 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in his rookie season.
- Last outing: Win, 5-4, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 11 K Sept. 22 at the Chicago Cubs.
Tigers at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Twins -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-140) | Twins -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Prediction
Twins 5, Tigers 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the TWINS (-190) because this price is on the cusp of unplayable since Minnesota is one of the most disappointing teams in MLB this season.
However, it appears as though Detroit has put Skubal on an inning- or pitch-count since he’s a talented young arm. Skubal hasn’t thrown more than 50 pitches or gone deeper than 4 IP in any of his four starts this month. If that’s the case then the strongest factor in this handicap is Detroit’s weak bullpen.
Tigers’ relievers have the worst SIERA and K-BB% and third-worst xFIP this month. Minnesota’s bullpen has the fourth-best ERA, eighth-best HR/9 and eighth-best K% this month.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS despite my predicted score because the Twins are just 14-38 ATS as home favorites and 30-42 ATS in AL Central games. On the other hand, the Tigers are 40-33 ATS as road underdogs and 37-35 ATS against divisional opponents.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-110) for a small wager because Minnesota is 20th in wRC+ and 22nd in wOBA vs. left-handed pitching. On top of that, Detroit’s lineup is 22nd in wRC+, 23rd in wOBA and 19th in hard-contact rate against righties.
There are also a plethora of Under-friendly trends for both teams entering this game and there’s a “line freeze” in the betting market for the total.
For instance, according to Pregame.com at the time of writing, roughly 70% of the cash wagered is on the Over but this total hasn’t budged since it opened. It’s telling that sportsbooks aren’t moving the total in a game with one-side action in the Over’s direction featuring two poor pitching staffs.
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