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The Detroit Tigers (43-52) and the Kansas City Royals (28-69) play the finale of a 4-game series Thursday at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Tigers vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
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Season series: Tigers lead 6-3
The Tigers won 3-2 on Wednesday, the same score as Monday’s series opening win. Those wins sandwich an 11-10 setback on Tuesday night. In 5 of the last 7 games, Detroit has either won or lost by a single run. The Under has cashed in 4 of the last 5 games overall.
The Royals have managed to win just twice in the last 6 home games, with the Under and Over alternating in each of the last 5 outings. Kansas City has managed to win just 3 times in the last 14 games against divisional opponents, too.
Kansas City is expected to activate RHP Zack Greinke (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to start Thursday. He threw a bullpen session earlier in the week.
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Tigers at Royals projected starters
RHP Michael Lorenzen vs. RHP Zack Greinke
Lorenzen (4-6, 3.75 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 93 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 5 BB, 7 K in 6-0 road win vs. the Seattle Mariners Saturday
- 2023 road splits: 1-3, 3.70 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 17 ER – 4 HR), .212 opponent batting average (OBA) in 7 starts
Greinke (1-9, 5.44 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 92 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K in a 9-3 road loss vs. the Minnesota Twins July 4
- 2023 home splits: 1-3, 3.67 ERA (49 IP, 20 ER – 6 HR), .293 OBA in 9 starts
Tigers at Royals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:47 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Tigers -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Royals +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+125) | Royals +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Tigers at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 5, Royals 3
Moneyline
The TIGERS (-130) are a solid play in Thursday’s series finale with their All-Star Lorenzen on the bump. Greinke is expected to return for the Royals (+110), but he has been shaky for the entire season. He allowed a solo homer for his only run allowed across 5 innings in a no-decision May 24 in Kansas City, but he could be quite rusty in this one.
Run line/Against the spread
The TIGERS -1.5 (+125) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line in Thursday’s series finale. While Detroit has been involved in plenty of 1-run games lately, including 3 in this series alone, the Tigers should be able to tee off on Greinke like so many others before them.
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Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (+100) is the lean in Thursday’s getaway day game.
The Under has cashed in 2 of the last 3 road outings for Lorenzen, and the total went low in his most recent outing against Kansas City on June 20, a 1-0 setback in Motown.
While the Under is 4-3 in the last 7 starts overall for Greinke, the Under has connected in each of the last 2 home outings. The Under is 8-3 in the last 11 games overall for Kansas City, too.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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