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The Detroit Tigers (18-16) and Cleveland Guardians (22-12) open a 3-game series Monday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Tigers won 9-4 in 2023
The Tigers suffered a 3-game sweep on the road against the New York Yankees over the weekend and were outscored 12-6 in the series. The Over cashed in the final 2 battles.
The Guardians lost the series opener to the Los Angeles Angels 6-0 at home on Friday, but Cleveland won the 2 games Saturday and Sunday by a combined 11-2 score. The Under and Over have alternated in the past 7 games, with the Under (8) cashing on Sunday.
Tigers at Guardians projected starters
RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Triston McKenzie
Flaherty (0-1, 4.00 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 12.5 K/9 in 36 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 14 K in 2-1 home loss vs. St. Louis Cardinals last Tuesday
- 2024 road splits: 0-0, 3.71 ERA, 17 IP, 9 R (7 ER), 15 H (3 HR), 1 BB, 23 K with .227 opponents’ batting average (OBA) and 0.94 WHIP in 3 starts
McKenzie (2-2, 4.34 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 29 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 6 K in 3-2 road win in 10 innings vs. Houston Astros Wednesday
- 2024 home splits: 2-1, 3.86 ERA, 18 2/3 IP, 9 R (8 ER), 16 H (2 HR), 15 BB, 16 K with .232 OBA and 1.66 WHIP in 4 starts
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Tigers at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Tigers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-225) | Guardians -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 3, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The TIGERS (+100) are a solid play at even-money in the opener between these Lake Erie rivals.
Detroit dominated the series against the Guardians (-120) last season, including 5 wins in 7 tries at Progressive Field. While Cleveland has been tremendous this season, it will have its hands full against Flaherty, who is tied for 4th in the majors with 50 Ks.
Run line/Against the spread
The Tigers +1.5 (-225) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, if you’d like a little bit of insurance, and you just can’t play Detroit straight up in the series opener.
Detroit is 8-3 in the past 11 games on the run line as an underdog, with 6 outright wins in the span. If you like the Tigers on the run line, you should have confidence in them straight up.
PASS.
Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-115) is worth a look in this series opener between AL Central foes.
The Tigers managed to score just 6 runs in a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees in New York. The Under has a slight 4-3 edge in the past 7 games for Detroit.
The Guardians have cashed the Under at a 6-3 pace in the past 9 games, with Cleveland going for 16 total runs of offense in the past 5 outings, averaging just 3.2 runs per game in the span.
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