[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
The Detroit Tigers (28-30) and Boston Red Sox (30-29) meet Sunday as they wrap up a 4-game series at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Tigers vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Red Sox lead 2-1
Detroit took the 1st game of this series (5-0), but has dropped the last 2 games (7-3 and 6-3). Since May 19, the Tigers are 1-6 with a -20 run differential away from the Motor City.
The Boston offense had been slumping of late until Friday. From May 24-30, the Sox logged a .594 OPS. Over Friday and Saturday’s games, Boston banged out a combined 10 extra base hits while scoring 13 runs.
Tigers at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Casey Mize vs. RHP Brayan Bello
Mize (1-3, 4.71 ERA) is making his 11th start. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 49 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 0 K in 14-11 win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
- Career vs. Red Sox: 0-1, 4.09 ERA (11 IP, 5 ER), 10 H, 5 BB, 6 K in 2 starts
Bello (6-2, 4.18 ERA) is making his 10th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 47 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 8-3 win at Baltimore Orioles Tuesday
- Career vs. Tigers: 0-1, 7.71 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 9 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 1 start
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers Draft Prep and full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!
Tigers at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:51 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Tigers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Red Sox -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-160) | Red Sox -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Tigers at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 4, Tigers 3
Moneyline
Boston is 12-2 over its last 14 games against Detroit. In Fenway games, the Red Sox have taken 10 of their last 12 against the Tigers.
Bello has clocked a Fenway ERA (3.80) more-than-a-run lower than his road mark (4.83) over his 3-year career. The BoSox hurler excels in inducing ground balls (54% ground-ball rate for the season, 60% over his last 3 starts), and Detroit struggles against ground-ball types (.617 OPS).
The Tigers are 1-7 over their last 8 series finales.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the better leverage price here: BET BOSTON (-138).
Run line/Against the spread
The relative value on the Red Sox is better on the ML. PASS.
Over/Under
Thirteen of Boston’s last 17 home games have hit the Under. Five of the last 7 Tigers-Red Sox games have done likewise.
Both starting pitchers have better expected ERA figures than surface ERAs. And for the most part, the expected-vs.-actual runs for and against on each side would indicate lower scoring days ahead.
Peg the UNDER 9 (-105) as being worthy of a partial-unit play.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]