The Detroit Tigers (55-60) seek a second straight win Wednesday against the Baltimore Orioles (38-73). First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Let’s analyze the lines around the Tigers vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal (7-10, 4.32 ERA) is making his 21st start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 110 1/3 IP.
- Skubal has really cut down on the walks lately, allowing a total of 4 free passes in his last six starts spanning 32 2/3 IP. However, home runs have been on the rise over that time. He has allowed 9 through that stretch including 3 against Baltimore July 30th.
- Skubal has been a much better pitcher at home than on the road since debuting last year. He has posted a 6.25 ERA and 3.4 HR/9 on the road despite a .255 BABIP, compared to 3.46 ERA and 1.3 HR/9 at home.
Orioles RHP Matt Harvey (6-10, 6.13 ERA) left his last outing early after tweaking his knee but has been cleared to make his 23rd start of the season. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 98 1/3 IP.
- Prior to his last start when he surrendered 2 ER in 4 IP, Harvey had tossed three consecutive scoreless outings, including a 6 IP, 5 K performance against Detroit. He struck out just 11 batters in 18 1/3 IP across that stretch while benefiting greatly from a .189 BABIP.
- Harvey hasn’t been good home or away this season but has at least kept the ball in the park on the road. He has posted an ugly 6.75 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 1.7 HR/9 through 10 home starts.
Tigers at Orioles odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Orioles +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers -1.5 (+125) | Orioles +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Orioles 6, Tigers 5
Money line (ML)
The Orioles have lost six games in a row and are a league-worst 17-35 at home this season. Harvey has gotten better results lately, although the skills have remained pretty weak.
Skubal has really been hurt by the long ball on the road and faces a tough test in a Baltimore offense that is 4th in wRC+ vs lefties. Neither starting pitcher is a great bet to have a great deal of success in this game but given Skubal’s road woes and the tough matchup we’ll lean slightly to ORIOLES (+100).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
This sets up to be a pretty close game, one in which both offenses score their fair share of runs. There doesn’t seem to be much value on either side of the run line so PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Skubal has been bad on the road and is facing a team that hits left-handed pitching very well. The Tigers should also get to Harvey whose recent success hasn’t been supported by his skills. Though the final score was 4-3 when these pitchers squared off in late July, OVER 9.5 (-130) is a great play here.
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