The Detroit Tigers (54-60) are in Maryland Tuesday to start a three-game set with the Baltimore Orioles (38-72). First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Tigers vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Tigers RHP Casey Mize (6-6, 3.57 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 116 IP.
- Allowed 1 run (0 earned) over 7 innings with 2 BB and 2 K against the Orioles July 29.
- Has a 3.48 ERA through four starts since the All-Star break.
Orioles LHP Keegan Akin (0-5, 7.66 ERA) makes his ninth start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.74 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 51 2/3 IP.
- Making his first start since July 16 and just his third start since June 26.
- Is 0-5 with an 8.82 ERA and 1.99 WHIP over 33 2/3 IP across eight starts.
Tigers at Orioles odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Orioles +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers -1.5 (+120) | Orioles +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Prediction
Tigers 6, Orioles 3
Money line (ML)
The Tigers have had their share of difficulties on the road this season but Mize hasn’t been the reason and the Orioles are no formidable opponent. Mize is 3-3 both at home and on the road while posting a nearly identical ERA and slightly better WHIP and K/9 numbers away from Comerica Park.
Detroit hits left-handed pitchers at a very middle of the pack rate, but that’s still considerably better than how Baltimore hits righties; the Orioles rank 28th in OPS and 25th in WRC+ against right-handers. Furthermore, Akin is not a southpaw to be feared as indicated by his numbers as a starter above.
Akin appeared in just one game of the recent Tigers-Orioles series and lasted just 1/3 IP while giving up 2 hits and generating just one swinging strike across the three batters he faced.
Be leery of this line getting more juiced up as we near first pitch but at the current number you can back DETROIT (-130)
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
This game marks just the second time this season the Tigers will be an away favorite, but Baltimore has lots of experience as a home underdog and is 17-27 ATS.
The two teams split a four-game series as July turned to August, but both of the Tigers’ wins were by 4 runs. It’s not inconceivable they get out to a good start against Akin and even if they don’t run it up on him they should get to the bullpen early, as he pitched beyond the fifth inning in only one of his starts.
The Orioles bullpen is dead last in the league with a -0.9 WAR, 9.66 ERA and 6.29 xFIP over the last two weeks.
The “LEAN” here is to the TIGERS -1.5 (+120).
Over/Under (O/U)
The 10.5-run total is a hefty number to overcome, especially considering the Tigers are 5-14-2 O/U in Mize’s starts.
While there is a decent wind out to left field and things are expected to be balmy tonight in Baltimore it still feels like a lot of pressure on the Tigers to produce the bulk of this action.
It may be too much to ask from a team averaging just 3.8 runs per game on a .674 OPS over its last 10 games.
BACK the UNDER 10.5 (-120)
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