The Detroit Pistons (5-25) travel to FTX Arena Thursday to take on the Miami Heat (19-13). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Pistons vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
The Heat are coming into this game down their best two players, but they’re one of the deeper teams in the Eastern Conference. Miami has won three of its last four, covering all three wins.
Ironically, their last loss was in Detroit to the Pistons. It has been profitable to bet on the Heat this season as they’re 19-13 ATS. The Pistons, on the hand, have struggled to consistently cover, just 14-16 ATS.
Detroit will be down its two top offensive players as well as a slew of role players, making depth especially crucial. Detroit is 2-13 on the road and has covered 4 of its last 6 games.
Pistons at Heat odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pistons +550 (bet $100 to win $550) | Heat -850 (bet $850 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Pistons +11.5 (-120) | Heat -11.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 207.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Pistons at Heat key injuries
Pistons
- G Cade Cunningham (health and safety protocols) out
- F Jerami Grant (thumb) out
Heat
- F Jimmy Butler (tailbone) out
- C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
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Pistons at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 109, Pistons 99
Money line
PASS.
Regular-season NBA favorites at -850 just don’t have value. Similarly, the Pistons are down their two best offensive playmakers, so I don’t find value in their +550.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the HEAT -11.5 (-105) as the Pistons are going to struggle offensively in this one. Already the worst shooting team in the NBA, the Pistons are down their two best players.
Combine that with the Heat still set to play a backcourt that features Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro, and I’d take the favorite to win by a relatively large margin.
Miami is 5-4 as home favorites this season. Detroit is 7-8, so the trends barely favor the Heat to cover.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 207.5 (-112) as a good play.
Grant and Cunningham are the top creators for Detroit, but both are relatively inefficient scorers. I expect more Isaiah Stewart and Saddiq Bey. Killian Hayes should also step up the scoring.
Both Detroit and Miami are .500 or better on the Over, a rarity as the Unders have covered at a higher rate. Miami has big-time shot makers in Herro, Lowry, and Max Strus, a 6-foot-5 shooter that has topped 18 or more points in his last 3 games.
With all the shot-making for Miami, I’d ride the Over.
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