(In this series, Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield takes a look at one important metric per NFL team to uncover a crucial problem to solve for the 2020 season. In this installment, it’s time to look at how the Oakland Raiders struggled on the defensive side of the football in 2019, and how they might address that issue in 2020).
Imagine a situation where, as a football team, you were faced with playing Patrick Mahomes twice a season.
That might cause some heartburn.
That is the exact scenario facing three teams in 2020 and beyond: The Denver Broncos, the Los Angeles Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders. How are you going to contain what Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy have assembled in Kansas City? A West Coast-based system that has grown into so much more under the trinity of Reid/Bieniemy/Mahomes. An offense that can strike in the blink of an eye.
Just ask the San Francisco 49ers.
The concern might be tangible around the Raiders, given what that team did last season. In their final season in Oakland, the Raiders put on the field an offense that perhaps showed they could compete with the Chiefs. Despite the annual consternation over Derek Carr, the quarterback quietly put together a solid season. His Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 7.25 was ninth-best in the league, and he completed over 70% of his passes, coming in in second behind only Drew Brees. Carr’s Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) of 2.4 was seventh-best in the league as well. Yes, the team brought in Marcus Mariota, but Carr is perhaps better than conventional wisdom tells us.
No, the concern might be better placed on the defensive side of the football.
Last year the Raiders defense struggled. They ranked 31st in Defensive DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), with a Defensive DVOA of 14.8%. That was actually a step back from their 30th place finish in 2018 in Defensive DVOA. A main culprit for their struggles? Pass defense. The Raiders posed a pass defense DVOA of 30.2%, ranking them 20th in the league.
There are of course other numbers to point to that highlight just how the Raiders struggled defensively in 2019. They managed to generate pressure on opposing passers just 19.9% of the time, sixth-lowest in the NFL. They allowed 2,064 yards after the catch in 2019, fourth-most in the league. Opposing passers put up an ANY/A of 7.8 against the Raiders, which was the highest ANY/A allowed by a defense last year. For a point of reference, an ANY/A of 7.8 would place that “generic Raiders opposition QB” seventh in the league in 2019. Yes, the Raiders turned opposing passers into a top ten QB.
So, what have the Raiders done this offseason to fix their defense?
Player additions began in free agency. The organization addressed the second level of their defense, adding free agent linebackers Nick Kwiatkowski from the Chicago Bears and Cory Littleton from the Los Angeles Rams. Littleton in particular is a massive acquisition. The veteran linebacker might be the modern prototype at the position, given his ability to cover in the passing game. Remember, the Raiders are in a division where they face Travis Kelce, Noah Fant and Hunter Henry each twice a season. You need a linebacker that can cover those guys, and Littleton might be just that kind of player.
Then in the draft the Raiders addressed the secondary, adding Damon Arnette, the Ohio State cornerback, in the first round. Arnette’s first-round selection caught many by surprise, but he has the background and ability in zone coverage that make him a potential scheme fit in Las Vegas. Then they drafted feisty Amik Robertson out of Louisiana Tech in the fourth round. Robertson is an undersized cornerback who plays much bigger than he measures, and who possesses good press coverage skills.
They also added another hybrid player in the third round, drafting Tanner Muse out of Clemson. Muse was a safety in Brent Venables’ 3-1-7 defense last season, but projects as more of a hybrid linebacker in the NFL.
Whether these additions are enough to shore up what has been a weak defensive unit remain to be seen, but this group will certainly be tested in 2020. If they can improve over their 2018/2019 numbers, perhaps the Raiders will have a better-than-expected inaugural season in Sin City.