The Baltimore Ravens’ biggest and toughest decision this offseason revolves around outside linebacker Matthew Judon, who is set to hit free agency. Baltimore can’t afford to let another star pass rusher leave for a second consecutive season. But re-signing Judon would undoubtedly be costly, especially if he hits the open market, which will likely drive up his value.
One solution is the franchise tag, which becomes available for teams to use on Feb. 25 and has a deadline of March 10. Those two dates loom large over Baltimore’s free agency period and are among the most important days the Ravens will see this offseason. Should Baltimore use the tag on Judon?
Let’s look at why the Ravens would even contemplate using the franchise tag in the first place.
The franchise tag for linebackers is expected to be $16.3 million, according to Over The Cap. That would be a relative bargain over what Judon could actually get in free agency. While we’ve predicted $17 million per season, the reality is top pass rushers frequently exceed all expectations once teams with a ton of salary cap space get into bidding wars. Last offseason, both Za’Darius Smith and C.J. Mosley earned deals far greater than what anyone had predicted.
The franchise tag isn’t a perfect solution either. Once applied, the entire franchise tag figure comes out of Baltimore’s current salary cap total. In the case of Judon this offseason, the expected $16.3 million tag would more than cut the Ravens’ available cap space in half. They’d go from an estimated $30.74 million, according to Over The Cap, to just $14.98 million.
Also, using the franchise tag on Judon would severely limit what Baltimore could do in free agency. Granted, they could either trade Judon or re-sign him to a long-term deal to free up some of that used cap space, but they’d be gambling they could get something done in time to not miss out on pending free agents they’re interested in. There’s always the notion of Judon holding out and refusing to play on the franchise tag while keeping his contract demands above what Baltimore is comfortable paying, creating a stalemate.
There’s no way of knowing which decision is ultimately the right one. But the stakes that are riding on this decision are massive. Tying up that type of money could keep the Ravens from improving for the 2020 season. But not keeping their only real pass-rushing threat could actually make them worse if they can’t find help in free agency.
General manager Eric DeCosta has been on fire since taking over for Ozzie Newsome. He’s worked hard to re-sign key players before they hit free agency and has saved the Ravens quite a lot of trouble already. But his decision on Judon is one that will affect Baltimore’s entire offseason and could derail the team’s momentum if he makes the wrong choice.
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