Dave Gettleman’s combine press conference is a master class on how not to be an NFL GM

Dave Gettleman is not very good at his job but he puts on an entertaining presser.

Dave Gettleman is very good at what he does. No, I’m not talking about constructing the Giants roster. He’s clearly pretty bad at that. I’m talking about his undying need to provide NFL Twitter with quotes to point and laugh at. In that regard, the man is an artist and his press conference at the 2020 NFL Scouting Combine was just the latest canvas.

And, boy, did Gettleman paint a masterpiece. Where do we start? Oh, how about with a classic:

You’d think after watching the Chiefs outscore the 49ers’ elite defense to win the Super Bowl, Gettleman’s faith in the old cliche would be shaken. Nah, this is a man who is undeterred by evidence — no matter how overwhelming it may be. The evidence showing how foolish it is to build around a defense continues to pile up, but Gettleman has chosen to ignore it. Which shouldn’t come as a shock. He drafted a running back with the second-overall pick, after all.

Unsurprisingly, the Giants are once again picking in the top-five two years later. Gettleman says his team is “open for business” when it comes to trading the pick, which is smart considering how many teams could be looking to move up to grab QB Tua Tagovailoa.

But there’s at least one reason to be skeptical that the Giants will actually do the smart thing and trade down: In his seven seasons as an NFL general manager, Gettleman has never traded down. Not once.

If you’ve even so much as dipped your toes into the waters of NFL analytics, you probably realize how shocking that stat is. Trading down is almost always the correct move, as Nobel prize-winning economist Richard Thaler explained all the way back in 2005. Thaler theorized that teams were overly confident in their ability to discern the top player at a given position from the second- or third-best player. As a result, they often overvalued the “right to pick,” which led to teams trading up or turning down good trade offers in order to get their guy.

Thaler writes…

“Teams overestimate their ability to discriminate between the best linebacker in the draft and the next best one, and to overestimate the chance that if they wait, the player they are hoping for will be chosen by another team.”

Thaler’s paper came out 15 years ago! Most team builders have adjusted accordingly, but not our man Dave. On Tuesday, he explained why he’s so hesitant to trade back.

“[Trading back] has danger. What happens if you trade back eight spots — we’re at four, let’s say we trade back to eighth — [and] there’s only four players that we like?

“What if they’re all gone? Now what are you gonna do? Are you gonna trade back again?

“You can trade yourself back out of good players.”

This is the problem with letting a guy who cut his teeth as a scout run a front office. Gettleman is so confident in his ability to evaluate players — those same evaluation skills that convinced him to draft Daniel Jones sixth-overall — that he doesn’t see any value in collecting draft picks. The problem is that every bit of evidence out there suggests that the NFL Draft is essentially a lottery … and the best way to win the lottery is to buy a bunch of tickets. Gettleman still thinks he can win it by simply playing his lucky numbers.

Speaking of wasting draft picks and money, Gettleman was asked about Leonard Williams, the disappointing first-round pick whom the Giants traded for this past season despite the fact that he (a) had only one year left on his contract and (b) hadn’t been very good with the Jets. The “change of scenery” did not help as Williams continued to be average after trading in green for blue.

Well, now Williams is headed toward free agency, giving Gettleman two options:

  1. Just take the L on the draft pick he traded for Williams and hope that him signing elsewhere nets the Giants a compensatory pick.
  2. Do the irrational thing and tag Williams — even though he’s clearly not worth the investment.

You better believe our dude is considering that second option…

This has to be a bit.

There’s no way a man seemingly this incompetent and this bad at his job has been allowed run two separate NFL teams. At this point, I’m waiting for Gettleman to come out and say “HAHAHA, I GOT ALL OF YOUS.”

There just has to be a punchline to all of this, right?

It’s hard to feel sorry for Giants fans, who have seen their team win two Super Bowls over the last 15 years. But maybe those two Lombardis were meant to lull them into a false sense of security and only now they’re realizing that THIS is the Bad Place … and Gettleman was sent to New York to torture them for what already feels like an eternity.

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