The No. 5 seed Utah Jazz (2-3) host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (3-2) for a pivotal Game 6 at the Vivint Smart Home Arena Thursday. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Jazz odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas stomped Utah 102-77 in Game 5 Monday and Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic has been sensational since making his series debut in Game 3. Luka is averaging a series-best 31.5 points on 51.2% shooting with 11.5 rebounds and a plus-22 net rating in the first round.
On the other hand, almost all of Utah’s starting 5 have struggled in this series, including the Jazz’s leading regular-season scorer SG Donovan Mitchell, who’s putting up an inefficient 26.0 points on 41.4% effective field goal shooting (eFG%) with a minus-13 net rating.
Mavericks at Jazz odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:02 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mavericks -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Jazz -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mavericks -1.5 (-102) | Jazz +1.5 (-122)
- Over/Under: 209.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Mavericks at Jazz key injuries
Mavericks
- None
Jazz
- SG Donovan Mitchell (quadriceps) probable
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Mavericks at Jazz picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 111, Jazz 104
Money line
BET the MAVERICKS (-112) to win Game 6 and advance to the Western Conference semifinals because it appears that the Jazz (-108) are out of adjustments. Utah needs Mitchell to be MUCH better offensively and C Rudy Gobert to be a difference-maker defensively.
But, Dallas was sixth in defensive rating this regular season and has held Utah to just 49.7% eFG% in this series. Also, the Jazz’s clumsy ball security from the regular season has carried into the playoffs. The Mavs have committed 20 fewer turnovers than the Jazz in this series.
On top of that, there’s an outside chance that Mitchell misses Game 6 and it’s pretty much a certainty he won’t be 100% for Utah’s elimination game. Mitchell exited in the second half of Game 6 with a leg injury.
Furthermore, the Mavs guards are knifing through the Jazz’s backcourt, which collapses Utah’s perimeter defense and leads to wide-open 3-pointers for Dallas. It’s unreasonable to ask Gobert to protect the rim and close out on the Mavs’ 3-point shooters in the corner.
Utah’s only case for winning Game 6 is the game is in Salt Lake City, but all the basketball logic suggests Dallas ends Utah’s season Thursday.
TAKE the MAVERICKS (-112).
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Against the spread
PASS because the Mavericks -1.5 (-102) is not enough insurance for our Dallas ML wager. If the Mavs’ spread somehow goes north of +2 then I’d happily take the points with Dallas just to be safe.
Over/Under
PASS with a “lean” toward the Over 209.5 (-108) because Dallas is getting whatever it wants on offense against Utah and it would make sense if the Jazz increase their pace and 3-point volume with their season on the brink.
However, there’s some reverse line movement (RLM) headed south of the total. According to Pregame.com, a vast majority of the market is betting the Over but the total has been lowered from the 210.5-point opener down to the current number.
RLM should be a red flag for sports bettors because it doesn’t make any sense for the sportsbooks to make the more popular side cheaper.
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