The No. 5 seed Utah Jazz (1-2) host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (2-1) Saturday for Game 4 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series. Tip-off at Vivint Arena is set for 4:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Jazz odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas took control of the series by winning Game 3 Thursday 126-118 behind a hot-shooting night from behind the arc and another sensational performance by breakout star PG Jalen Brunson.
The Mavericks have connected on 22 more 3-pointers and are outshooting the Jazz 40.5-34.2% in this series. Brunson is averaging 32.0 points on 60.2% true shooting (.507/.412/.850) with 5.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists.
The major story heading into Game 4 is the possible return of Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic who was sidelined for the first three games of the series with a calf injury he sustained in Dallas’s regular-season finale.
Mavericks at Jazz odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mavericks +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Jazz -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-120) | Jazz -6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 212.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Jazz key injuries
Mavericks
- PG Luka Doncic (calf) questionable
Jazz
- None
[tipico]
Mavericks at Jazz picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 110, Jazz 105
Money line
SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+205) because this is a terrible matchup for the Jazz and I don’t see any moves for Utah head coach Quin Snyder to make. The Jazz need big Rudy Gobert on the floor to protect the paint and set screens and SG Donovan Mitchell is the center of Utah’s offense.
But, Mitchell and the rest of the Jazz’s backcourt cannot stop Dallas’s dribble penetration, which collapses Utah’s defense and leads to wide-open 3-pointers. The Mavs aren’t just red-hot from three but are getting great looks.
Both teams ranked in the top-10 of defensive rating during the regular season but Dallas played much better than Utah versus tough defenses.
The Mavs are 16-11 straight up (SU) against top-10 defenses with a plus-2.5 ATS margin (ranked fourth). Whereas the Jazz are 10-16 SU with a minus-3.6 ATS margin (ranked 23rd), according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Luka’s return also is the last thing Utah wants to see. Luka averaged 30.0 points on 58.6% true shooting (.456/.444/.800) with 11.0 rebounds, 7.7 assists and a plus-9 net rating in three games versus the Jazz this season.
I’d only SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+205), if at all, because Dallas’s spread is the sharper bet. The Jazz have also been one of the better home teams in recent seasons and we’ll see an all-in effort from Utah Saturday.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Against the spread
Definitely BET the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-120) heavier than or instead of their ML because Dallas plus the points might come in handy with the Jazz needing this game like blood.
The Mavs are 14-7 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record and 5-2 ATS as 5-to-7-point underdogs while the Jazz are 10-25-2 ATS versus teams with a winning record (5-13-1 ATS at home).
For the record, the MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
PASS because this feels like a sharp total. The Mavericks-Jazz is the second-slowest-paced series in the playoffs and both teams had top-tier defenses during the regular season.
However, the Mavs have the highest 3-point attempt rate in the playoffs so if they stay hot from behind the arc in Game 4, that’ll force the Jazz to chuck 3-pointers.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]