The Dallas Mavericks (19-17) visit the Denver Nuggets (22-15) Saturday at Ball Arena for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Mavericks-Nuggets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Dallas had its four-game winning streak snapped by the Oklahoma City Thunder in a 116-108 loss as a 2-point favorite Thursday. The Mavericks were without All-Star PG Luka Doncic and PF Kristaps Porzingis who were rested in the second half of a back-to-back for Dallas.
The Nuggets have won five in a row and covered the spread in four of those five games. All were on the road, including a 103-102 win over the Memphis Grizzlies as 2.5-point favorites in their first game back from the All-Star break Friday.
This is the rubber match of the three-game regular-season series between the Mavericks and Nuggets. Each team has won and covered the spread once.
Mavericks at Nuggets: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Nuggets +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mavericks -1.5 (-110) | Nuggets +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 225.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Nuggets: Key injuries
Mavericks
- None affecting the betting lines.
Nuggets
- PF JaMychal Green (illness) probable
- C Nikola Jokic (ankle) questionable
- SG Monte Morris (quadriceps) questionable
- SG Garry Harris (thigh) out
Special NBA Betting Promotion!
Place a $1 bet on either team’s money line, WIN an additional $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a 3-pointer during the game today. Promotion available in CO, IN, MI, NJ, TN, VA and WV. IA and PA residents, don’t miss BetMGM‘s risk-free, first-bet offer!
Place your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM! Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!
Mavericks at Nuggets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Mavericks 118, Nuggets 109
Money line (ML)
Even though this is technically the “money line” section, there are a few ATS trends that are applicable since the spread and money line are nearly identical.
This is a good spot for Dallas. The Mavs are 5-3 ATS as road favorites, 5-1 ATS in games where they have a rest advantage and Denver is 4-7 ATS as a home favorite.
The rest split is additionally important considering Doncic and Porzingis rested in the Mavs’ previous game. Denver played last night and Nuggets Jokic is questionable.
Also, Doncic has absolutely dominated Denver this season; he’s averaging 36.5 points on 53.3% shooting with 10.0 rebounds and 14.5 assists per game in the two Mavericks-Nuggets meetings.
Finally, this is a Pros vs. Joes situation in the betting market. More than 70% of the money bet is on the Mavs but nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Nuggets, according to Pregame.com.
Since the sharp side of the market is the money column, let’s follow the money and BET MAVERICKS (-125) for 1.25 units.
Play our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since the money line is only slightly more expensive than the spread.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS since BetMGM‘s projected total is only 1.5 points below my predicted score so there isn’t enough value there for me to bet the Over.
You could make a case Jokic’s absence hurts both Denver’s defense and offense or Nuggets SF Michael Porter Jr. and PG Jamal Murray could erupt with more usage freeing up.
Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Also see:
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1368]