The Dallas Mavericks (3-4) square off with the Denver Nuggets (3-4) Thursday at Ball Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Mavericks-Nuggets NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Mavericks pasted the Houston Rockets 113-100 as 4-point road underdogs Monday. Dallas had more fast-break points, more points in the paint, shot better from everywhere on the floor, out-rebounded Houston 57-41 and dished out seven more assists … Essentially outclassed the Rockets in every way.
Denver righted the ship following back-to-back losses by defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in both legs of a home/away doubleheader Jan. 3 and 5. The Nuggets covered the spread in the first game vs. the Timberwolves (a 124-109 win as 8.5-point road favorites) but lost against the spread in the second meeting (a 123-116 win as 10.5-point home favorites).
Dallas beat Denver 2-1 (2-1 against the spread) in the 2019-20 season series. Three of the last four Mavericks-Nuggets games have been decided by 3 or fewer points.
Mavericks at Nuggets: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Nuggets -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mavericks +2.5 (-105) | Nuggets -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Nuggets: Key Injuries
Mavericks
- PG Trey Burke (illness) out
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (knee) out
Nuggets
- SF Michael Porter Jr. (health and safety protocols) questionable
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Mavericks at Nuggets: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Mavericks 116, Nuggets 110
Money line (ML)
While scrolling through our Mavericks-Nuggets photo inventory, I noticed there were very few pictures of Denver PG Jamal Murray guarding Luka Doncic but I saw a lot of pictures of former Nuggets players SFs Torrey Craig and Jerami Grant checking Luka.
Those former Nuggets players were their best wing defenders over recent seasons and despite Doncic’s official PG designation, he’s mostly guarded by the opponent’s athletic wings.
Well, as a team Denver has been terrible defensively thus far—second-to-last in the NBA in defensive rating (115.5) and here’s a look at the candidate’s to guard Luka Thursday: Murray (118 defensive rating), SG Gary Harris (118 defensive rating) and SF Will Barton (115 defensive rating).
Luka’s career stats vs. the Nuggets are subpar for him: 22.8 points per game on 40.6% field-goal shooting, 21.1% from 3-point range and a 106 offensive rating. Now that Denver no longer has reliable defensive wings, I think Doncic gets anywhere he wants against the Nuggets.
TAKE MAVERICKS (+125) for a half-unit because we are betting the spread heavier.
Against the spread (ATS)
Dallas is the right side here and my strategy is to BET MAVERICKS +2.5 (-105) for 1.5 units on top of the light money line wager I made.
We should cash both tickets but it’s better to be safe than sorry. It’s noteworthy we are fading the market and if pro-Nuggets action keeps coming we might get more points closer to tip-off.
Over/Under (O/U)
I lean OVER 223.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit with a disclaimer. According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the market is betting Over in Mavericks-Nuggets, yet the total has been pushed down from a 226-point opener, which tells me BetMGM feels good about their projection for the total. That makes me nervous and I’d either bet the total lightly or not at all.
Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Also see:
- Rookie Wire Power Rankings: James Wiseman, LaMelo Ball lead the way (Rookie Wire)
- Hoops Hype Rumors: Mavericks | Nuggets
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