With three races remaining before the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, the battle for the final spot is coming down to the wire.
A quiet, consistent drive for Ty Gibbs landed him on the right side of the playoff cutline leaving Michigan International Speedway.
Gibbs parlayed a third-place qualifying effort to third in Stage 1 to score eight stage points. He couldn’t follow it up with points in Stage 2, but Gibbs’ 11th-place run in the final stage helped lift him back into the provisional playoff field for the first time since Chicago in July. The Joe Gibbs Racing rookie rose from 18 points out to three points above the cutline.
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The Toyota star’s rise came at the expense of Michael McDowell (main image), who struggled in NASCAR’s lone trip to Michigan for the year. McDowell suffered early front-end damage while trying to draft and struggled to find pace, coming home a lap down in 24th at race’s end. He now sits three points below the cutline. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that the final trio of races come on road courses and superspeedways – arguably McDowell’s best tracks.
Just two points behind McDowell lies Daniel Suarez. After a disappointing July that saw him fall back to 19th in the standings, the Mexican star scored 14 stage points and rallied to a sixth-place result after staying out as most winning contenders pitted late in Stage 2, causing him to cycle cycling out behind them for the final stage. Suarez gained 29 points on the cutline, leaving him five points out of a second playoff appearance.
AJ Allmendinger still has a chance to advance on points, but he sits a distant 24 points out after finishing 26th. Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott were contenders to point their way into the playoffs heading into Michigan. But the duo each crashed, leaving them 33rd (Bowman) and 36th (Elliott) at race’s end.
Bowman now sits 44 points below the cutline in 20th, with Elliott 55 points out in 21st. They and any others outside of the top 20 will likely need to win one of the final three races to keep their playoff hopes alive.
A host of race winners clinched their playoff berths Monday. Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. were all locked in with wins. William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch had already secured their spots in the Field of 16.
That leaves four spots to race for. Kevin Harvick (+180 points) and Brad Keselowski (+168) are all-but assured to advance without a trio of surprise winners. Bubba Wallace (+58) has a full-race buffer on Gibbs and the rest of the cutline, which offers him protection if someone outside of the top-16 steals a spot with a victory.
Drivers outside of the top 20 and in a must-win position include Austin Cindric, Elliott, Justin Haley, Aric Almirola, Ryan Preece, Corey LaJoie, Todd Gilliland, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, Harrison Burton and Chase Briscoe.
That leaves Gibbs, McDowell, and Suarez to wage war for the final playoff spot – while hoping no one below wins and puts them on the outside looking in.
The final three tracks of the NASCAR regular season will take place at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, Watkins Glen International and Daytona International Speedway.