The Colorado Rockies (16-12) visit Oracle Park Monday to start a 3-game series with the San Francisco Giants (16-12) at 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rockies vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Colorado lost a 3-game series rubber match Sunday vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-0 and is 6-4 overall in its last 10 games.
San Francisco beat the St. Louis Cardinals in back-to-back games Saturday and Sunday to split their 4-game series but the Giants are just 3-7 overall in their last 10 games.
The Giants won 15 of their 19 meetings with the Rockies in 2021 and had a plus-65 run differential in their season series.
Rockies at Giants projected starters
LHP Austin Gomber vs. LHP Carlos Rodon
Gomber is 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 across 27 2/3 IP over 5 starts. He got a win in Colorado’s 5-2 victory vs. the Washington Nationals Wednesday with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 6 K.
- 2021 vs. Giants: 0-3 with a 12.00 ERA (12 IP, 16 ER), 15 H, 11 BB and 10 K in 3 starts.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 4.95 FIP with a .223/.300/.352 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 17.5 K% and 90.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 40 plate appearances (PA).
Rodon is 3-1 with a 1.55 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 over 29 IP across 5 starts. He lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-1 Tuesday with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Rockies on the current roster: 3.81 FIP with a .230/.298/.449 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 31.6 K% and 85.4 mph EV in 38 PA.
Rockies at Giants odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:42 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Rockies +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Giants -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rockies +1.5 (-110) | Giants -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Rockies at Giants picks and predictions
Prediction
Giants 5, Rockies 1
Money line
PASS because baseball is too flukey of a game to lay -250 with any regular-season ML favorite.
San Francisco dominated Colorado last season but the difference between these two teams is accurately reflected in this line.
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN to the GIANTS -1.5 (-110) only because they are 3-11 RL as home favorites with a minus-1.9 RL margin.
However, the Rockies cannot hit away from Coors Field, and Colorado’s lineup ranks dead-last in both wRC+ (75) and wOBA (.283) and 29th in hard-hit rate (28.4%), per FanGraphs.
Rodon is also pitching at a Cy Young-caliber in his first year in San Francisco. He grades in the 92nd percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG and K%, according to Statcast.
The most important factor in my LEAN to the GIANTS -1.5 (-110) is the discrepancy in relief pitching. Colorado’s bullpen ranks 28th in xFIP (4.28), 29th in WHIP (1.45) and 24th in hard-hit rate (41.0%).
Over/Under
PASS with a “lean” to the Under 6.5 (+105) since Colorado’s lineup cannot hit on the road, Rodon has been one of the best starters in baseball over the past 2 seasons and the Giants have scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of their 5 games against left-handed starters.
However, I don’t have a strong enough grasp on the total and I don’t trust the Rockies’ bullpen.
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