The Colorado Rockies (51-65) and San Francisco Giants (75-41) meet Saturday for the third game of their four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rockies vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Rockies LHP Kyle Freeland (3-6, 4.65 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 71 2/3 IP.
- Allowed 1 ER in four of his seven road starts. In the remaining three road starts he gave up more than 3 ER only once.
- Has a 3.41 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .321 BABIP across 29 IP through five starts since the All-Star break.
Giants LHP Sammy Long (1-1, 5.81 ERA) makes his fourth start and his eighth appearance. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 26 1/3 IP.
- Making his first start since July 3. Gave up 10 ER on 15 H and 5 BB with 15 K through 15 IP in his three previous starts.
- Has a 1.65 ERA across 27 1/3 IP through six starts and three relief appearances at Low-A, Double-A and Triple-A this season.
Rockies at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Rockies +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Giants -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rockies +1.5 (-115) | Giants -1.5 (-107)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Prediction
Giants 4, Rockies 3
Money line (ML)
The pitching matchup in this one actually leans well toward Colorado with Freeland taking the mound against the rookie Long.
The problem is the scenario just does not set up well – Colorado simply does not produce results away from Coors Field, as evidenced by their league-worst road record of 13-44 and league-worst 3.04 runs per game away from home.
There may be some backing to make a small value-based wager on the Rockies at +180, but they’re 1-7 this season at Oracle Park and it’s hard to fully put trust in the team to get it done.
The safest move in this scenario is PASS. We can’t trust the Rockies to produce and we can’t pay the chalk price on the Giants with their rookie hurler.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Freeland has been shelled in one of his seven road starts this season but he’s given up 3 or fewer earned runs in the other six outings. San Francisco isn’t bad against lefties, but it doesn’t hit them particularly well either.
Colorado on the other hand does hit lefties pretty well and is top five in metrics such as OPS and wOBA against southpaws. While Long’s 3.37 FIP and 4.60 xFIP suggest he has perhaps been a bit hard done by compared to his surface numbers, if there’s a guy the Rockies might get to it could be him.
Take the insurance and look toward COLORADO +1.5 (-115).
Over/Under (O/U)
We’ve already touched on Freeland’s road numbers, Colorado’s inability to get it done at the plate anywhere but Coors field, and Long’s underlying stats belying his surface ERA.
On top of that, both of these bullpens have been pretty solid in the second half and the public is hammering the Over.
The play looks to be toward UNDER 8.5 (-108).
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