After splitting the first two games of their series, the Colorado Rockies (45-59) and San Diego Padres (60-46) play the third game of their four-game series Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rockies vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP German Marquez is the projected starting pitcher for the Rockies. He is 8-8 with a 3.54 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 through 124 2/3 IP spanning 21 starts.
Marquez took the loss in each of his last two starts while allowing a total of 7 earned runs. He pitched seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 Rockies win over the Padres July 10.
RHP Yu Darvish is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over 115 2/3 IP spanning 20 starts.
This will be his fourth start of the year against the Rockies. He is 1-0 against them with an ERA of 2.25 over 16 innings. He has struggled more of late, losing three straight decisions and posting an ERA of 7.32 over his last four starts.
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Rockies at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Rockies +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Padres -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rockies +1.5 (-135) | Padres -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Padres 5, Rockies 4
Money line (ML)
The Rockies picked up their 12th road win of the year Friday but they still have the worst road record in the league. They have, though, won three of their last five games against the Padres in San Diego.
They took two of three in San Diego just before the All-Star break in the only road series this season in which Colorado won more than one game.
Only the Chicago White Sox have more home wins than the Padres’ 35 this season. They are 5-6 over their last 11 homes games but Darvish has a 2021 home ERA of 2.79.
Take the PADRES (-200).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The Rockies are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games, although they are 22-29 ATS on the road this season.
The Padres are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games and 27-29 ATS at home. Three of the last four wins for the Padres with Darvish on the mound were by one run.
I like the Padres to win, but like Colorado for the cover. Take the ROCKIES +1.5 (-135).
Over/Under (O/U)
The projected total for tonight is low, especially considering the recent struggles of the two starting pitchers. That said, four of the last five games between the Rockies and Padres finished with totals under seven runs.
Four of the Rockies’ last five games and 10 of their last 13 finished with more than 7 total runs.
Four of the last five for the Padres had a total of 7 or more runs.
Take OVER 7 (-115).
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