It’s pretty safe to say that Week 2 of the college football season didn’t go the way Ohio State planned, and after the Buckeyes’ 35-28 loss to Oregon, they dropped out of the top-4 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff.
And unsurprisingly, the Ducks moved up.
Ohio State entered Week 2 in the No. 2 spot with a 66.5 percent chance to make the playoff behind Alabama, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. That made sense when it seemed like the then-No. 3 Buckeyes would beat then-No. 12 Oregon. But upsets are among the many, many reasons we watch college football, and now they have just a 22.6 percent chance to make the CFP.
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After a big win that included shredding Ohio State’s defense, the Ducks are now ranked fourth in the AP and Coaches polls, and they also now occupy the No. 4 spot in terms of their playoff chances. But to get to the playoff, they’ll almost certainly have to win the Pac-12 championship, which they have a 61.3 percent chance of doing. And as we’ve seen recently, sometimes even a Pac-12 title doesn’t cut it. But their playoff chances are way up compared with Week 2.
Here’s a look at the teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff going into Week 3, according to ESPN’s FPI as of Wednesday.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0)
- Playoff: 75.5 percent
- National championship game: 51.0 percent
- Win championship: 31.8 percent
2. Oklahoma Sooners (2-0)
- Playoff: 70.8 percent
- National championship game: 38.9 percent
- Win championship: 19.9 percent
3. Georgia Bulldogs (2-0)
- Playoff: 68.5 percent
- National championship game: 40.0 percent
- Win championship: 20.7 percent
4. Oregon Ducks (2-0)
- Playoff: 42.6 percent
- National championship game: 13.4 percent
- Win championship: 4.3 percent
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Extremely unsurprisingly this week, Alabama is still the team with the best shot at making the playoff, even if its chances decreased over the last week. Ahead of the Crimson Tide’s blowout against Mercer in Week 2, they had an 85.7 percent chance to make the playoff, and that number fell a little to 75.5 percent, per ESPN’s FPI. The nation’s top-ranked team *could* have its first real test against No. 11 Florida in Week 3, or it could comfortably win in less-than-blowout fashion thanks to Heisman Trophy favorite quarterback Bryce Young and the arsenal of Alabama receivers he has to work with.
Oklahoma — led by another Heisman favorite, quarterback Spencer Rattler — saw a huge boost in its playoff chances after its crushing 76-0 win over Western Carolina, jumping from 54.6 percent in Week 2 to 70.8 percent ahead of Week 3. Of course, at least some of that has to do with the Sooners’ chances of winning the Big 12 moving up after Texas’ embarrassing performance against Arkansas. Again, winning a conference championship doesn’t guarantee a playoff berth, but unless it’s an independent team, it’s all but a requirement.
While Georgia is ranked No. 2 in the AP and Coaches polls, it has the third-best playoff chances going into Week 3 at 68.5 percent, which is another giant leap from Week 2 when it was at 45.3 percent, per ESPN’s FPI. After the Bulldogs opened the season with a win over Clemson, they were barely outside of the top-4 teams with the best shot at the playoff, but a commanding win over UAB plus the upsets around the country gave them a nice boost. But with a tough SEC schedule ahead of them, they’re unlikely to win out and still aren’t favored to beat Alabama for the conference title.
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Here’s a look at the remaining teams with the 10-best chances to make the College Football Playoff ahead of the Week 3 lineup.
5. Clemson Tigers (1-1)
- Playoff: 39.9 percent
- National championship game: 20.4 percent
- Win championship: 10.0 percent
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (1-1)
- Playoff: 22.6 percent
- National championship game: 9.8 percent
- Win championship: 4.4 percent
7. Florida Gators (2-0)
- Playoff: 15.5 percent
- National championship game: 6.2 percent
- Win championship: 2.3 percent
8. Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0)
- Playoff: 15.0 percent
- National championship game: 5.2 percent
- Win championship: 1.8 percent
9. Texas A&M Aggies (2-0)
- Playoff: 9.8 percent
- National championship game: 3.5 percent
- Win championship: 1.3 percent
10. Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0)
- Playoff: 9.1 percent
- National championship game: 2.5 percent
- Win championship: 0.8 percent
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