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In the first of 3 College Football Playoff quarterfinal games New Year’s Day, the Peach Bowl features the fifth-seeded Texas Longhorns (12-2) facing the No. 4 seed Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2). Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is at 1 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Texas vs. Arizona State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Texas won its first-round playoff game Dec. 21 vs. 12th-seeded Clemson 38-24. The Longhorns covered as 13.5-point home favorites and the Over (49.5) cashed. The Longhorns’ 2 losses came to No. 2 Georgia, once in the regular season (30-15) and then in the SEC Championship (22-19). Texas’ defense ranks second in the nation in points allowed per game (13.3) behind Ohio State (11.4).
The Sun Devils earned a first-round bye after winning the Big 12 Championship in their first season in the conference. They won their final 6 games, knocking off the Iowa State Cyclones in the conference title game 45-19 as 1.5-point underdogs Dec. 7 in Arlington, Texas. ASU was led by RB Cam Skattebo, who has 2,074 total yards from scrimmage (1,568 rushing) and 22 total TDs.
While Arizona State is the higher seed, Texas is the higher ranked team in the US LBM Coaches Poll (conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports). The Sun Devils are No. 10; the Longhorns are No. 4.
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Peach Bowl: Texas vs. Arizona State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 12:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Texas -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Arizona State +400 (bet $100 to win $400)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texas -13 (-110) | Arizona State +13 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 51.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Texas vs. Arizona State picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas 34, Arizona State 27
Moneyline
Along with ranking second in scoring defense, Texas is No. 2 against the pass (156.9 yards per game behind Ohio State’s 141.2 YPG) and 11th against the run (104.5 rushing YPG).
Arizona State’s strength is its rushing attack, averaging 198.8 yards per game to rank 23rd — led by Skattebo’s 6.0 yards per carry. QB Sam Leavitt threw only 5 INTs all season — vs. 24 TDs — but is expected to be without his top receiver in Jordyn Tyson (upper-body injury), who caught 75 passes for 1,101 yards and 10 scores — all team-highs.
Texas averaged 33.9 points per game (25th in the country) with a balanced attack. The Longhorns were considered a top-5 team all season, while the Sun Devils rose in the rankings over the last half of the season.
It is hard to see the Sun Devils (+400) getting the upset, but the Longhorns’ -550 odds offer no value and are not worth betting.
PASS.
Against the spread
While Texas is the overwhelming favorite, Arizona State has done nothing but outplay expectations this season. The Sun Devils averaged 37.1 points per game over their final 6 games and scored 45 in the Big 12 Championship against Iowa State — which scored 42 in a 1-point win over Miami in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Texas shut down Clemson’s run game in the first round of the playoffs, allowing only 76 yards, but Clemson QB Cade Klubnik passed for 336 yards and 3 TDs.
Slowing Skattebo will be something different and the Sun Devils were 4-2 ATS as underdogs.
BET ARIZONA STATE +13 (-110).
Over/Under
Four of the Devils’ final 6 games had more than 51 total points. Texas’ win over Clemson had 62.
Texas only had 1 conference game with a total higher than 51 but 4 of its 5 non-SEC games surpassed 51 points.
BET OVER 51.5 (-105).
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