[gambcom-standard rankid=”4141″ ]
The No. 5 Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2, 8-1 Big Ten) square off against the No. 8 Boise State Broncos (12-1, 7-0 Mountain West) on Tuesday in the Fiesta Bowl to start the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff. Kickoff from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) on New Year’s Eve. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Penn State vs. Boise State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Both of these top-10 teams (US LBM Coaches Poll) delivered a huge win in their most recent game.
Boise State won the Mountain West Championship Game 21-7 on the back of Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty (209 rushing yards, 1 TD) to earn a first-round CFP bye. The Broncos’ only loss of the season came in Week 2 versus the No. 1 Oregon Ducks.
Penn State roared past the SMU Mustangs 38-10 in Round 1 of the CFP after falling short in its Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon. Its only other defeat came from another elite Big Ten club: the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Despite earning the first-round bye, the MWC champions are underdogs against the Big Ten powerhouse. Will the Broncos prove the market has underestimated them, or will the Power 5 pedigree push Penn State through to the CFP semifinals?
Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State vs. Boise State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Monday at 7:31 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Penn State -450 (bet $450 to win $100) | Boise State +350 (bet $100 to win $350)
- Against the spread (ATS): Penn State -10.5 (-115) | Boise State +10.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”4132″ ]
Penn State vs. Boise State picks and predictions
Prediction
Penn State 30, Boise State 24
Moneyline
Drew Allar has not been super-exciting at quarterback for Penn State, but has guided this offense to lean on the run game of Nicholas Singleton (928 yards, 8 rushing TDs) and Kaytron Allen (892 yards, 8 TDs).
Jeanty is a beast, but Penn State has a more diverse well of capable players to control possession.
A sprinkle bet on BSU is tempting, but anyone looking to back the favorites will not find value along the moneyline.
PASS, barring a sprinkle bet on Boise State (+350).
Against the spread
The presence of Jeanty means the Broncos always have a game-breaking play in the bank. Expect BSU to be playing from behind most of the game, but to hang in and keep pace with its more hyped opponents.
FanDuel Sportsbook presents a more beneficial Boise State line, but less favorable juice at +11.5 (-114).
BET BOISE STATE +10.5 (-105) at BetMGM or BOISE STATE +11.5 (-114) at FanDuel. This writer prefers the former.
Over/Under
Both teams’ scoring upside has been overvalued by betting markets this year: BSU is 7-6 on the total, while PSU sits at 6-8.
That being said, Boise State should remain competitive after receiving extra rest, and both clubs ranked in the top 12 in points per play: Boise State 0.538 (sixth) and Penn State 0.507 (T-12th).
PSU allowed 15.9 points per game (sixth-lowest), but the Broncs proved much more vulnerable at 20.9.
The likely urgency Boise State will display near the end of the game tilts the scales in favor of fading the trend and backing the Over.
BET OVER 52.5 (-115).
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
[gambcom-standard rankid=”6305″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow @TeamHeaney on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Duke / Florida / Florida State / Georgia / Iowa / Kentucky / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / UCLA / USC / Washington / Wisconsin / Recruiting / Transfer portal / College Football Playoffs / College Sports Wire / High School
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]