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Update Jan. 1, 10:18 p.m. ET: Wednesday’s Sugar Bowl between the Notre Dame Fightin Irish and Georgia Bulldogs was moved to Thursday at 4 p.m. ET due to the deadly French Quarter attack early New Year’s Day.
Original column below (published Jan. 1, 12:10 p.m. ET)
The No. 5 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-1) face the No. 2 seed Georgia Bulldogs (11-2, 6-2 SEC) Wednesday in the Sugar Bowl edition of the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. Kickoff from New Orleans’ Caesars Superdome on New Year’s Day is scheduled for 8:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Notre Dame vs. Georgia odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
This showdown of top-5 teams in the Coaches Poll (US LBM Coaches Poll) comes with a few significant injuries, but plenty of talent to lead either side to a possible CFP semifinals berth.
As SEC Champions, Georgia received a first-round bye, but will have to compete without starting QB Carson Beck, who’s out with an injury to his right (throwing) elbow.
Sophomore Gunner Stockton lines up to take snaps. Following Beck’s injury at the end of the first half of the SEC Championship Game, Stockton led a second-half comeback that eventually produced a 22-19 overtime win over Texas.
Stockton must now deal with the vaunted Notre Dame defense, which shined in its 27-17 Round 1 CFP victory over the Indiana Hoosiers.
Notre Dame’s outlook has surged due to defensive coordinator Al Golden’s system of playmakers (including top NFL Draft prospect safety Xavier Watts) and an elite run game led by QB Riley Leonard (2,293 passing yards, 751 rush yards, 17 pass TDs, 15 rush TDs) and RB Jeremiyah Love (1,057 rushing yards, 16 TDs).
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Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Georgia odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 7:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Notre Dame -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Georgia -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Notre Dame -1 (-105) | Georgia +1 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Notre Dame vs. Georgia picks and predictions
Prediction
Notre Dame 24, Georgia 20
Moneyline
Georgia will be tested for a full game without Beck against one of the country’s best defenses, especially stopping air attacks (162.3 passing yards/game ranks the Irish third in the nation).
Notre Dame’s scheming has already adeptly overcome many significant defensive injuries, and Golden should account for the significant loss of defensive lineman Rylie Mills (knee).
This game is priced as a coin flip, but BetMGM gives the slight value nudge to the underdogs — luckily for us.
BET NOTRE DAME (-110).
Against the spread
PASS.
Bet the Irish for the outright win.
Over/Under
Expect both clubs to try to slow the pace through the ground game: Though typically explosive this season, Notre Dame will play to its strength (11th in the nation with 222.4 rushing yards per game) to maintain possession against an SEC juggernaut that’s likely better than most defenses the Irish have faced.
Meanwhile, Georgia will aim to ease the burden on Stockton through RBs Nate Frazier (634 yards, 8 TDs) and Trevor Etienne (571 yards, 9 TDs).
Fade the scoring ceiling that has slightly more beneficial juice.
BET UNDER 45.5 (-115).
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