With the Big Ten and Pac-12 having announced a move to conference-only game schedules, the other three Power Five conferences are holding their cards and waiting to play them. We looked at the Big 12’s situation and options earlier in the week. Let’s now deal with the Atlantic Coast Conference.
The ACC shares a desire with the SEC to play at least one non-conference game, given that it is important for various ACC-SEC rivalries to occur in this and any other season: Georgia Tech-Georgia, Florida State-Florida, Louisville-Kentucky, and Clemson-South Carolina. Moreover, since the ACC — like the SEC — has only eight conference games in a typical season, whereas the Big Ten, Pac-12, and Big 12 all have nine, it becomes that much more likely that the ACC will have at least one nonconference game on its schedule.
The most interesting — and important — question surrounding the ACC’s revised schedule plan is therefore not the tension between conference and nonconference games, but how many of each will the conference seek?
It could be an eight plus one plan: eight league games, one non-con game.
It could be nine plus one. It could be nine plus two.
It could be eight plus two or eight plus three.
Which of these scenarios is more likely? Which is more reasonable from the ACC’s perspective?
I’m not sure about whether nine ACC games or eight will emerge from any adjusted plan, but I’m relatively confident the ACC will try to find a way to get at least two nonconference games into the mix, meaning it will either be an eight-plus-two plan or a nine-plus-two plan.
Why such confidence that the ACC will pursue at least two nonconference games? Two words: Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish have been very good to — and for — the ACC, boosting the league’s national profile and filling those coffers with money. Notre Dame has been a good partner with the ACC, so the conference will want to play the various games its teams have scheduled with the Fighting Irish. That and the need to preserve ACC-versus-SEC rivalries should give the ACC enough incentive to want to play at least two nonconference games.
I’m not sure about three non-cons, and I’m hesitant to think the ACC will try to play 11 games in a circumstance where the Big Ten has committed to only 10 games, and the Pac-12 is unlikely to go beyond 10 when it announces its actual league-only schedule. So, my ultimate prediction is that the ACC will settle on a 10-game schedule: eight league games and two nonconference games. If the ACC plays nine league games, I won’t be stunned, but I will be somewhat surprised if the ACC plays only one nonconference game and not two.