The Auburn Tigers are the Associated Press’ No. 1 team in the nation, but that doesn’t mean every AP voter sees it that way. And that’s fine, because it’s rare to have 61 voters agree unanimously on where one specific team should be ranked.
Some voters will make their case for “Team X” being the best, while others have the same program as the No. 3 with “Team Y” at No. 1. You get the point. But it’s rather rare for a committee member to have an opinion that’s so drastically different from his colleagues.
Enter Jesse Newell of the Kansas City Star, an AP voter who placed Auburn at No. 9 and No. 5, respectively, on his most-recent weekly ballots. Another 54 other voters had the Tigers as either No. 1 or No. 2. His low ranking caused Auburn to just narrowly miss out on the week’s No. 1 ranking two weeks ago—incurring the wrath of Auburn fans on social media. Here’s what Newell told AL.com’s Tom Green about his ballot on Jan. 17:
“I absolutely believe that [the Tigers] have the best resume in the country…. but right now, there are probably eight teams in the country that, on a neutral court, they would not be favored against. So, that’s how I do my poll. It doesn’t change. It stays the same week to week.”
Newell leans on metrics from KenPom.com—namely T-Rank, Sagarin, Team Rankings and BPI— to come up with his ballot each week. Those algorithms take into consideration how a team looks possession by possession over the course of a game.
But Newell’s philosophies aren’t the end-all-be-all — the teams have to play the games for a reason. Not even a week ago, Auburn defeated No. 12 Kentucky, who KenPom has ranked ahead of them. Like Auburn fans, you probably shouldn’t turn to Newell for rankings verification when it comes to the AP Top 25.
However, his research-backed philosophies could be a helpful tool as the postseason approaches. Would you feel comfortable taking Auburn in the NCAA Tourney over a defensive stalwart like Houston? Or how about the nation’s elite offensive teams like Gonzaga or Arizona in a win-or-go-home scenario? There’s no way of knowing without seeing the teams battle it out on the court, but Newell’s rankings suggest the Tigers may have significant challenges ahead.
As college bettors trek towards March Madness, keeping an eye on Newell’s AP ballot may provide a bit of an edge—even if Auburn fans don’t want to hear it.
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