The Cleveland Indians (41-32) meet the Minnesota Twins (32-43) Sunday for the third game of what was supposed to be a four-game series as Saturday’s meeting was rained out. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Indians vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
These teams split the first two meetings of the series as the Indians won 4-1 Thursday and the Twins took Friday’s game 8-7.
Season series: Tied 4-4.
LHP Sam Hentges takes the ball for the Indians. Hentges is 1-1 with a 6.40 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.89 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 over five starts and seven relief appearances in his rookie season.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Cleveland’s 2-1 win at the Pittsburgh Pirates June 20.
- 2021 road splits: 0-1 with an 8.64 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 2.16 WHIP and 1.8 K/BB rate over three starts and two bullpen outings.
LHP J.A. Happ makes his 14th start for the Twins. Happ is 3-3 with a 6.09 ERA (65 IP, 44 ER), 1.49 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 5 BB and 4 K in Minnesota’s 7-5 victory over the Cincinnati Reds Monday.
- Happ is 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA (13 IP, 6 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.5 K/BB rate in two starts this season vs. Cleveland.
- vs. Indians on the current roster: 84 at-bats with a .250/.267/.452 slash line, 19/2 K/BB, 3 HR and 12 RBIs.
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Indians at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:04 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Twins -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-160) | Twins -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Twins 7, Indians 5
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the TWINS (-140) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit since Happ is slightly sharper at home compared to his road starts and Hentges has been terrible in away games this season.
Happ’s home ERA is nearly 3.5 runs lower with a 1.32 home WHIP (1.71 road WHIP) and his opponents have a .983 OPS on the road but just a .771 OPS in Minnesota.
Also, the Twins rank seventh in both wRC+ and wOBA with the sixth-highest hard-hit rate while the Indians are 23rd in both wRC+ and wOBA.
The reason why I’m going with the Twins on the First 5 Innings money line instead of the full game is that Minnesota’s bullpen has the sixth-worst WAR while Cleveland’s bullpen ranks eighth in WAR.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because I don’t like Minnesota’s money line enough to think about laying with the Twins’ run line for either the full game or First 5 Innings.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-110) for a half unit because Minnesota has a 10-3 O/U record in Happ’s 13 starts this season and the Over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 Indians-Twins meetings.
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