The Los Angeles Angels (17-22) host the Cleveland Indians (21-17) Monday for the first of a three-game set in Angel Stadium with a 9:38 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Indians vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Cleveland lost the last three of a four-game series at the Seattle Mariners this weekend following a four-game winning streak. The Indians are 9-4 in their last 13 contests.
L.A. snapped a four-game losing skid with a 6-5 win at the Boston Red Sox in the series finale Sunday. The Angels are 4-10 in their last 14.
Season series: 0-0.
LHP Sam Hentges is on the rubber for the Indians. Hentges is 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.76 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 across 1 start and 4 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 6 K Wednesday vs. the Chicago Cubs.
- Career vs. the Angels: No appearances.
LHP Patrick Sandoval is the projected starter for the Angels. Sandoval is 0-0 with a 6.14 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 6.1 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 over 3 relief appearances.
This is Sandoval’s first start of the season and, according to MLB.com, Sandoval is “expected to be limited to roughly 60-65 pitches.”
However, L.A.’s bullpen ranks 20th or worse in SIERA, xFIP, K-BB% and left-on-base percentage.
- Last outing: 2 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 1 K at the Houston Astros Wednesday.
- Career vs. the Indians: 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA (3 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 2 BB and 4 K in 1 start.
- Cleveland’s lineup is terrible vs. left-handed pitching, ranking in the bottom-3 teams of the league in wRC+, wOBA and OPS.
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Indians at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Angels -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-165) | Angels -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Indians 4, Angels 2
Money line (ML)
Neither lineup hits well against lefties with Cleveland’s being exceptionally bad, but the Indians do have the fourth-highest BB/K rate vs. left-handed pitching and Sandoval has control problems.
Also, L.A.’s bullpen ranks in the bottom half of the majors in WAR, xFIP, home runs allowed per nine innings and K-BB%, whereas Cleveland’s is in the top 10.
Lastly, the Angels could be road-weary as they were in Boston for a three-game set this weekend and are traveling all the way across the country for Monday’s game.
BET INDIANS (+115) for a half unit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” INDIANS +0.5 (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a quarter unit since the regular run line for Cleveland is far too expensive and I have more faith in Hentges than Sandoval.
Cleveland has low-key been a pitching factory and Hentges being the 25th-ranked prospect in the Indians organization says something to me.
However, because Cleveland’s biggest edge over L.A. is within the bullpen units, the better wager is the Indians’ money line.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 9 (-105) for a half unit because both lineups stink against lefties and L.A. has a lot more bark than bite.
Over the past seven days, Angels hitters have the lowest WAR and wOBA (the Indians are 29th) and the second-lowest wRC+ (behind Cleveland).
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