The Cleveland Indians (50-49) start a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox (60-43) Friday with an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Guaranteed Rate Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Indians vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Indians lead 6-5.
RHP J.C. Mejia is Cleveland’s projected starter. Heis 1-6 with a 7.52 ERA (40 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 over nine starts and three relief appearances in his rookie season.
- Last outing: Loss, 8-2, with 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 6 K Saturday against the Tampa Bay Rays.
- 2021 road stats: 1-4 with an 8.34 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 27 H, 9 BB and 23 K through six starts and one relief appearance.
RHP Lance Lynn takes the mound for the White Sox. He is 10-3 with a 1.91 ERA (103 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 18 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 6 K Sunday at the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Lynn is 1-1 with 5 ER, 9 H, 2 BB and 12 K over 11 IP in two starts against Cleveland this season.
- vs. Indians on the current roster (59 PA): 4.38 FIP with .113 batting average, .210 expected wOBA, .317 expected slugging percentage, 30.5 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity.
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Indians at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | White Sox -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-110) | White Sox -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
White Sox 5, Indians 2
Money line (ML)
PASS because I’m confident enough in the White Sox to just lay it with their run line and I don’t want to waste any of my bankroll on Chicago’s bloated money line price.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
TAKE the WHITE SOX -1.5 (-110) for 1 unit because their lineup ranks in the top 10 across several advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA, BB/K rate and hard-contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Chicago also has the second-best cover rate as a home favorite at 27-19 ATS and four of the White Sox’s five wins over the Indians this year were by at least 2 runs.
Mejia has been terrible on the road this season and grades in the 20th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, exit velocity, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage and whiff rate.
Not only do the White Sox have a clear edge in hitting and the starting pitching duel but Chicago’s bullpen has a higher WAR than Cleveland’s.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) because Lynn has been dominant at home and Cleveland’s lineup has been terrible on the road.
Lynn has a 1.50 ERA and 0.85 WHIP at home compared to a 2.63 ERA and 1.33 WHIP on the road. He has a 4.6 K/BB at home and 2.6 K/BB on the road. Plus, Indians batters rank in the bottom-10 on the road in wRC+, wOBA and hard-contact rate.
Finally, while Chicago’s lineup is ultra-talented and is getting healthier, the White Sox are still 19-25-2 O/U as home favorites because their pitching staff as a whole has performed well in Chicago.
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