The Cleveland Guardians visit the Seattle Mariners as the American League foes open the 2023 season at T-Mobile Park Thursday. First pitch will be at 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023 after the Mariners won 6 of 7 from the Guardians in 2022.
Cleveland went 92-70 last season. The Guardians won the AL Central and eventually advanced to an AL Division Series where they were ousted by the New York Yankees in 5 games.
Seattle went 90-72, placing 2nd in the AL West a year ago, losing 3-0 to the Houston Astros in the ALDS. Six of the Mariners’ 90 wins came against Cleveland and Seattle outscored Cleveland 29-11 in the 7 games they played.
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Guardians at Mariners projected starters
RHP Shane Bieber vs. RHP Luis Castillo
Last season, Bieber went 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA. He logged a 1.04 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 200 IP.
- Owns a 2.76 road ERA over his career
- Has been a fast starter, allowing a mere .585 OPS over his career games played in March/April
- Has held current Seattle bats to an aggregate .576 OPS
Castillo went 8-6 a year ago, splitting time with the Cincinnati Reds and Mariners. He notched a 2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 150 1/3 IP.
- 2022 BB/9 figure was his best since his age-25 season in 2018
- Current Cleveland batters own an .838 OPS against him
Guardians at Mariners odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:07 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Guardians +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Mariners -118 (bet $118 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+175) | Mariners +1.5 (-220)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Guardians at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 4, Guardians 3
Moneyline
Just a slight lean toward Seattle here since the Mariners are at home and it’s Opening Day, although the plus-money action on the Guardians is enticing. Best to just PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
That price on the Mariners is steep due to a lot of juice. Look to the total for the best leverage in this game. PASS.
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Over/Under
With some slight fade of both starters, the Over is something to consider here. Castillo has subpar numbers against Cleveland batters and has filed a couple major Opening Day clunkers in his career. Bieber’s stuff and velocity have been on the decline, though his numbers last season were buoyed by the Guardians’ excellent defense.
Mix in a couple bullpens that last year got big lifts from their batting-average-on-balls-in-play figures.
BACK THE OVER 6.5 (-110).
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