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The Cleveland Guardians (3-2) and Seattle Mariners (3-2) play the middle contest of a 3-game series Tuesday at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mariners lead 1-0; Seattle scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 2nd Monday, and held on for a 5-4 win in the series opener
The Guardians have lost a pair of 1-run games after opening the season 3-0, while outscoring the opposition 26-7 in those outings. The 1st was an 8-0 win behind RHP Shane Bieber, Tuesday’s probable pitcher. The Over (8) cashed Monday, thanks to a Cleveland run in the top of the 8th inning, and the total has now gone high in 4 of 5 games this season.
The Mariners won for the 1st time this season as an underdog (+100) in Monday’s series opener. It was favored in the 1st 3 games, winning twice, but it failed as a ‘dog in the series finale Sunday against Boston (-105). The Over on Monday ended a 3-0 run to the Under.
Cleveland won 3 of 4 games in Seattle last season, with the Over and Under splitting 2-2. The underdog has cashed in 7 straight meetings in this series.
Guardians at Mariners projected starters
RHP Shane Bieber vs. RHP Luis Castillo
Bieber (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start in 2024. He has a 0.83 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9, 16.5 K/9 in 6 IP.
- 2023 road splits: 1-3, 4.14 ERA (63 IP, 29 ER – 10 HR), 12 BB, 47 K in 10 starts
- 2023 vs. Mariners: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K (87 pitches) in 3-0 loss March 30 in Seattle
Castillo (0-1, 7.20 ERA) has made 1 start in 2024. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, 9.9 K/9 in 5 IP.
- 2023 home splits: 8-5, 3.09 ERA (105 IP, 36 ER – 15 HR), 30 BB, 130 K in 18 starts
- 2023 vs. Guardians: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 6 K (76 pitches) in 3-0 win March 30 in Seattle
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Guardians at Mariners odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:26 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mariners -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+165) | Mariners +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Guardians at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 4, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The MARINERS (-115) are a solid play in what should be a well-pitched, low-scoring game. We saw it early last season when Bieber and Castillo met each other at T-Mobile Park. Both players came away with no-decisions after spinning 6 scoreless innings piece, as the M’s picked up a 3-0 win with late damage against the Cleveland bullpen. We could see a replay here.
Run line/Against the spread
The Mariners +1.5 (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s never a recommended betting strategy.
AVOID, and play Seattle straight up if you like it.
Over/Under
UNDER 7 (+100) is a rather low number, but it’s worth playing lightly, as both teams have their respective aces making their 2nd starts of the new season.
The Under has cashed in 3 of the past 4 games for the Mariners. Oddly enough, the total did go high in Castillo’s 1st start, but the game ended up going high after his exit from the contest.
The Over cashed (barely) in Bieber’s first start, too, although the Cleveland pitching staff posted a goose egg in that opener. The Guardians offense took advantage of a poor A’s pitching staff to get the job done, barely, by a half-run.
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